Forecasting the upcoming week: Focus shifts to US inflation and the Fed Minutes

The US Dollar (USD) gave away part of its previous gains and ended the week in the red, always amid increasing uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East coupled with the equally vacillating message from the White House.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) seems to have embarked on a consolidative phase in the upper end of its recent range and close to yearly tops north of the psychological 100.00 barrier, always closely following developments in the Middle East crisis. The ISM Services PMI is due on April 6. On April 7 comes the ADP Employment Change Weekle, seconded by Durable Goods Orders, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, Consumer Inflation Expectations and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications come on April 8, ahead of the weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles by the EIA and the FOMC Minutes. The PCE data is expected on April 9, followed by Personal Income/Spending, the final Q4 GDP Growth Rate and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. The CPI prints take centre stage on April 10, alongside the flash U-Mich Consumer Sentiment and Factory Orders.

EUR/USD ended the week with modest gains, at some point surpassing the 1.1600 hurdle on the back of the loss of momentum in the Greenback. The final S&P Global Services PMI in Germany and the euro area will be released on April 7 along with the Sentix Index. Germany’s Factory Orders are expected on April 7, along with the HCOB Construction PMI in Germany and the euro zone, as well as Retail Sales and Producer Prices in the broader bloc. On April 9 will come Germany’s Balance of Trade results and Industrial Production, while the final Inflation Rate will wrap up the docket on April 10.

Another poor performance prompted GBP/USD to close its second consecutive week of losses, even revisiting levels last seen in late November 2025 near 1.3170. The final S&P Global Services PMI is due on April 7, while the Halifax House Price Index and the S&P Global Construction PMI are expected on April 8. On April 9 comes the RICS House Price Balance and the BBA Mortgage Rate.

USD/JPY faded part of the previous advance and retreated modestly this week, stabilising in the sub-160.00 region following earlier multi-month tops. Household Spending data will be released on April 7, seconded by Average Cash Earnings and the preliminary Coincident and Leading Economic Indexes. The Current Account resuls are due on April 8 alongside the Eco Watchers Survey. The weekly Foreign Bond Investment prints are due on April 9, ahead of Consumer Confidence and Machine Tool Orders. Bank Lending figures and Producer Prices will close the calendar on April 10.

AUD/USD managed to regain some composure and partially recover from the previous week’s strong sell-off, although another test of the key 0.7000 barrier remained elusive. The final S&P Global Services PMI and Household Spending data will be published on April 7. The final Building Permits and Private House Approvals will close the domestic docket on April 10.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

• The Fed’s Goolsbee and Jefferson will speak on April 7.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

• The RBNZ meets on April 8 (2.25% act. vs. 2.25% exp.) alongside the RBI (5.25% act. vs. 5.625% exp.).
• The NBP will decide on rates on April 9 (3.75% act. vs. 3.75% exp.).
• The BoK meets on April 10 (2.50% act. vs. 2.50% exp.)