|

Fed Quick Analysis: Buying opportunity on USD? Three reasons why the Fed was not dovish enough

  • The Federal Reserve has left rates unchanged but downgraded its language. 
  • There are three reasons why the USD retreated on the news.
  • But there are also three factors that could send it back up.

The Federal Reserve has left the interest rates unchanged as broadly expected but has also made significant changes that open the door to a rate cut. But is it enough to satisfy markets?

Follow all the action in our live Fed coverage

Let's begin by explaining the three reasons why the dollar dipped and then describe why it is not dovish enough.

1) Patience: The Fed has scrapped the word "patience" that it has been repeating since the wake of 2019. The central bank is no longer sitting on the fence but will "closely monitor" developments, thus opening the door to rate cuts.

2) Growing uncertainties: The Fed has placed global worries on the front page and not only in its meeting minutes. The wording shows that officials are genuinely worried.

3) Dovish dissenter: James Bullard, President of the Saint Louis Fed, has voted for a rate cut. Dissents are not common under Powell and Bullard's coming out points to growing pressures for reducing rates.

However, there are three developments that make the development not that dovish:

Three reasons for a greenback comeback

1) Dot plot: The Fed's projections do not point to a rate cut in 2019. This significantly contradicts market expectations for two rate cuts in 2019. The Washington-based institution may eventually change the dot-plot and cut rates – but we're not there yet.

2) Inflation: The Fed has maintained the wording that "survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed." They seem unmoved by the slowdown in the consumer price index. Inflation is one of the Fed's mandates.

3) Strong labor market: The bank notes that "the labor market remains strong" shrugging off the unimpressive job gains recorded in May and seeing a brighter picture. They add that "Job gains have been solid." Employment is the Fed's second mandate and once again – this is far from being sufficient for a rate cut.

Follow all the action in our live Fed coverage

Author

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

More from Yohay Elam
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD onsolidates around mid-1.1800s as traders keenly await FOMC Minutes

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish rebound from the 1.1800 neighborhood, or a one-and-a-half-week low, and consolidates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-1.1800s, nearly unchanged for the day.

GBP/USD bounces off lows, retargets 1.3550

After bottoming out just below the 1.3500 yardstick, GBP/USD now gathers some fresh bids and advances to the 1.3530-1.3540 band in the latter part of Tuesday’s session. Cable’s recovery comes as the Greenback surrenders part of its advance, although it keeps the bullish bias well in place for the day.

Gold bounces back toward $4,900, looks to FOMC Minutes

Gold is attempting a bounce from the $4,850 level, having touched a one-week low on Tuesday. Signs of progress in US–Iran talks dented demand for the traditional safe-haven bullion, weighing on Gold in early trades. However, rising bets for more Fed rate cuts keep the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and act as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders now seem reluctant ahead of the FOMC Minutes, which would offer cues about the Fed's rate-cut path and provide some meaningful impetus.

DeFi could lift crypto market from current bear phase: Bitwise

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan hinted that the decentralized finance sector could lead the crypto market out of the current bear phase, citing Aave Labs’ latest community proposal as a potential signal of good things to come.

UK jobs market weakens, bolstering rate cut hopes

In the UK, the latest jobs report made for difficult reading. Nonetheless, this represents yet another reminder for the Bank of England that they need to act swiftly given the collapse in inflation expected over the coming months. 

Ripple slides to $1.45 as downside risks surge

Ripple edges lower at the time of writing on Tuesday, from the daily open of $1.48, as headwinds persist across the crypto market. A short-term support is emerging at $1.45, but a buildup of bearish positions could further weaken the derivatives market and prolong the correction.