Every time there is an FOMC meeting, the markets have never shown any sense of normalcy [Video]

US Dollar: Dec '22 USD is Up at 112.895.

Energies: Dec '22 Crude is Down at 88.55.

Financials: The Dec '22 30 Year note is Down 47 ticks and trading at 119.08.

Indices: The Dec '22 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 96 ticks Lower and trading at 3746.00. 

Gold: The Dec'22 Gold contract is trading Down at 1623.40. Gold is 266 ticks Lower than its close.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The dollar is Up, and Crude is Down which is normal, but the 30-year Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower, and Crude is trading Lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Currently all of Asia is trading Lower. All of Europe is trading Lower as well.

Possible challenges to traders today

• Challenger Job Cuts is out at 7:30 AM EST. Major.

• Unemployment Claims is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.

• Prelim Nonfarm Productivity is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.

• Prelim Unit Labor Costs are out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.

• Trade Balance is out at 6:30 AM EST. Major.

• Final Services PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST. This is Major.

• ISM Services PMI is out at 10 AM EST. This is Major.

• Factory Orders are out at 10 AM EST. This is Major.

• Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. This is Major.

Treasuries

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 30 year (ZB) to the 10 year (ZN). They work exactly the same.  

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 10-year bond (ZN) and the S&P futures contract. The S&P contract is the Standard and Poor's, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZN made its move at around 10 AM EST. The ZN hit a Low at around that time and the S&P moved Lower shortly thereafter.  If you look at the charts below ZN gave a signal at around 10 AM and the S&P gave a signal at around the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZN hit a Low at around 10 AM and the S&P moved Lower shortly thereafter. These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 10-year note, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $15.625.  Please note: the front month for the ZN is now Dec '22. The S&P contract is also Dec' 22.   I've changed the format to Renko Bars such that it may be more apparent and visible.  

Charts courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform

ZN - Dec 2022 - 11/02/22

S&P - Dec 2022 - 11/01/22

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral bias given that it was FOMC Day.  The markets went from intraday highs to lows and the Dow closed 505 points Lower, the other indices closed Lower as well.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is Neutral.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market. 

Commentary

We always say this every time there is an FOMC Meeting, the markets have never shown any sense of normalcy on that day and we will always maintain a Neutral or Mixed bias. A Neutral bias means the markets could go anywhere and often does.  Look at what happened yesterday. The Fed announces a rate hike of three quarters of a percentage point or 75 basis points.  The market drops then the Fed provides language in their statement that suggests that they will slow down in the future, the market rises.  The Fed has a press conference, and the Dow drops over 500 Lower, the other indices follow suite. Personally, we do not advocate trading on a Neutral bias day as there are too many variables and, in our opinion, you are risking your hard-earned trading capital and it isn't worth it.