EUR/USD: 1.0560
EurUsd had a choppy day on Friday, heading up to 1.0618 when the dollar took on a soft tone before turning sharply lower in US trade, to finish at 1.0560, not too far removed from where it had begun the day.
This leaves the outlook pretty much unchanged, and with the short term momentum indicators being pretty neutral a nimble stance is required although the dailies still suggest another test of the downside in the days ahead. If so, near term support will arrive at the 23 Feb, 1.0637 low, and then again as we approach 1.0500 and the 1.0493, 22 Feb low. Below that, there is not too much support ahead of the 11 January low of 1.0453, 1.0420 and to levels below 1.0400 where there is little to support the Euro until the 3 Jan low of 1.0340 A return to the topside will once again find offers at 1.0600/20 above which would head towards 1.0635 and possibly to 1.0675/80. Above here looks unlikely today, but we could potentially see a move back to 1.0700 and above. The Durable Goods Orders will provide much of the direction today but until then, I prefer to look to sell into strength, looking for an eventual retest of 1.0500.
| 24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Mildly bearish | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.0700 | 22 Feb high | 1.0556 | Friday low |
| 1.0678 | 16 Feb high | 1.0537 | 23 Feb low |
| 1.0635 | (76.4% of 1.0678/1.0493) | 1.0520 | Minor |
| 1.0618 | Friday high | 1.0493 | 22 Feb low |
| 1.0590 | 200 HMA | 1.0453 | 11 Jan low |
Economic data highlights will include:
M: EU Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Business Climate, US Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg Business Climate
T: German Retail Sales (Jan), US Provisional GDP (Q4), Wholesale Inventories, Provisional US Personal Consumption/Expenditure, Goods Trade Balance, Case Shiller House Price Index, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Mfg Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory. Trump speaking to Congress.
W: EU Mfg PMIs, German CPI, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure Index, Markit Mfg PMI, ISM Mfg PMI/Prices Paid , Construction Spending, Total Vehicle Sales, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change, Fed’s Kaplan/Brainard Speeches
T: German Import/Export Index, EU Unemployment CPI, PPI, US Jobless Claims, ISM NY Index
F: EU Services/Composite PMIs, EU Retail Sales, Fed Speeches: Yellen, Evans, Lacker, Powell, Fischer
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