|

Europe's No Trade Zone

Highlights

Europe's No Trade Zone

Draghi & Carney Today!!!

Multi-year Opportunity

Please Note: All data, figures & graphs below are valid as of October 25th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Trade Free Zone

This was a bit of a shocker to read in this morning's paper. A trade deal between the EU and Canada called Ceta, which has been under construction for 5 years and planned to add €90 Billion worth of annual trade, has been blasted out of the water by a tiny regional parliament in Belgium.

Belgium itself is for the deal, but it seems that the French speaking people of Wallonia have let anti-globalization get the better of them and thereby get the worst for Europe. As the BU (Bureaucratic Union) requires each deal to be ratified by all countries, the refusal to sign by a handful of Walloons was in fact able to launch a torpedo at the heart of EU trade.

The deal has already been approved by Jean-Claude Junker and Justin Trudeau, and was to pave the way towards a much larger trade deal with the United States. 

Negotiators are working frantically to try and pull something together by Thursday, but as it seems this deal has already been pulverized, along with Europe's ability to successfully negotiate any trade deal ever again.

Good luck Great Britain, you're going to need it!

Overview

Markets were rather flat yesterday with stocks in Europe and the US rising less than 0.5% and the VIX volatility index closing at 13.02.

Louis

Aside from the German IFO Business Climate report and the US Consumer Confidence figures, there are two BIG speeches coming this afternoon that are sure to grab our attention.

First up is Mark Carney from the Bank of England, who will be testifying about the economic consequences of Brexit before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. 

Less than one hour later we'll hear from ECB President Mario Draghi who will deliver a speech to the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin.

With two central bank heads speaking around the same time, the markets could get pretty busy. I recommend taking a look at the EURGBP pair this afternoon during the peak of the action, around 16:00 UK time.

This pair has becoming increasingly interesting following the results of the UK-EU referendum. The main question when trading it is who is going to be better off, the UK or Europe?

Here we can see that the price is currently the highest its been since 2009...

Central Bank

Notice that most of the rise has happened after the referendum in June (Yellow X).

@HedgeHappy Karl Hunter has been putting some amazing stats on the board lately. In fact, he's currently on track for a flawless first year, closing 12 out of 12 months in green.

Karl is currently eyeing the EURGBP for a multi year entry noting the extreme highs but also the political risk involved. Good luck Karl and keep up the great work.

Author

Mati Greenspan

Mati Greenspan

eToro Cyprus

Producing social finance marketing materials by E-mail, blogs, and videos. Project manager for the eToro Blog Site, assisting paid users to submit content. Assisting VIP clients to deposit and manage portfolios of ov

More from Mati Greenspan
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans. 

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.