Europe's No Trade Zone

Highlights

Europe's No Trade Zone

Draghi & Carney Today!!!

Multi-year Opportunity

Please Note: All data, figures & graphs below are valid as of October 25th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

 

Trade Free Zone

This was a bit of a shocker to read in this morning's paper. A trade deal between the EU and Canada called Ceta, which has been under construction for 5 years and planned to add €90 Billion worth of annual trade, has been blasted out of the water by a tiny regional parliament in Belgium.

Belgium itself is for the deal, but it seems that the French speaking people of Wallonia have let anti-globalization get the better of them and thereby get the worst for Europe. As the BU (Bureaucratic Union) requires each deal to be ratified by all countries, the refusal to sign by a handful of Walloons was in fact able to launch a torpedo at the heart of EU trade.

The deal has already been approved by Jean-Claude Junker and Justin Trudeau, and was to pave the way towards a much larger trade deal with the United States. 

Negotiators are working frantically to try and pull something together by Thursday, but as it seems this deal has already been pulverized, along with Europe's ability to successfully negotiate any trade deal ever again.

Good luck Great Britain, you're going to need it!

 

Overview

Markets were rather flat yesterday with stocks in Europe and the US rising less than 0.5% and the VIX volatility index closing at 13.02.

Aside from the German IFO Business Climate report and the US Consumer Confidence figures, there are two BIG speeches coming this afternoon that are sure to grab our attention.

First up is Mark Carney from the Bank of England, who will be testifying about the economic consequences of Brexit before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. 

Less than one hour later we'll hear from ECB President Mario Draghi who will deliver a speech to the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin.

With two central bank heads speaking around the same time, the markets could get pretty busy. I recommend taking a look at the EURGBP pair this afternoon during the peak of the action, around 16:00 UK time.

This pair has becoming increasingly interesting following the results of the UK-EU referendum. The main question when trading it is who is going to be better off, the UK or Europe?

Here we can see that the price is currently the highest its been since 2009...

Notice that most of the rise has happened after the referendum in June (Yellow X).

@HedgeHappy Karl Hunter has been putting some amazing stats on the board lately. In fact, he's currently on track for a flawless first year, closing 12 out of 12 months in green.

Karl is currently eyeing the EURGBP for a multi year entry noting the extreme highs but also the political risk involved. Good luck Karl and keep up the great work.