|

European Indices mixed following German Election results

Notes/Observations

- German Chancellor Merkel faces tough coalition talks following German Election results

- German Business moral drops slightly in Sep

- PM Abe calls snap election, to seek ¥2T economic package

Overnight

Asia:

-Election results in New Zealand saw ruling National Party with 46.6% and Labour with 35.5%. With neither party winning enough seats to have a majority in parliament.

-Eight China cities, including Shijiazhuang, Chongqing, Nanchang, Nanning and Guiyang imposed curbs on home resales as part of campaign to cool home prices

-(JP) PM Abe to dissolve lower house on Sept 28th (confirms will call snap election); confirms to seek ¥2.0T ($17.8B) economic package

Europe:

-German Chancellor Angela Merkel re-elected for fourth term taking just shy of 33% of the vote, Her conservative CDU/CSU bloc and SPD results were lowest in almost 70 years.

-Current coalition partner, the social democratic SPD, says it will go into opposition after historic losses.

-Nationalist party took a notable part of the vote (13%) which will see the AFD Party enter parliament for first time

-German IFO index edges downward, but remains well above its long term average

-UK credit rating cut to Aa2 from Aa1 at Moody's

Americas

The US widens scope of Travel ban to include North Korea, Venezuela and Chad

Oil:

Iraqi Kurds vote in independence referendum from Iraq

Economic data

(DE) GERMANY SEPT IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE: 115.2 V 116.0E; CURRENT ASSESSMENT: 123.6 V 124.7E

- Expectation Survey: 107.4 v 108e

-(ES) Spain Aug PPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.0% prior

Fixed Income Issuance:

-Non seen

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.1% at 3,546, FTSE -0.2% at 7,298, DAX +0.3% at 12,627, CAC-40 flat at 5,281, IBEX-35 -0.6% at 10,245, FTSE MIB +0.1% at 22,544, SMI +0.2% at 9,158, S&P 500 Futures -0.1%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European stocks opened lower, but drifted upwards as the session progressed; peripheral markets underperforming; political uncertainty following election results over weekend weighed on sentiment; UK stocks in focus after Moody's cut country's risk rating; Alstom and Siemens disclose entered discussions to merge train units; commodities weakened, weighing on energy and materials stocks; attention turning to ECB's Draghi speech later today and Fed Chair Yellen tomorrow

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Aryzta ARYN.CH +2.2% (results), Autogrill AGL.IT -2.3% (analyst action), Norwegian Air NAS.NO +3.2% (unit awarded flight permission in US), Sodexo SW.FR -0.3% (analyst action), Unilever UNA.NL +0.1% (acquisition)

- Energy: Tullow Oil TLW.UK +5.9% (expected to resume drilling)

- Industrials: Alstom ALO.FR +1.1% (talks with Siemens), Fincantieri FCT.IT +4.4% (contract award)

- Materials: Essentra ESNT.UK +2.6% (hurricane update)

- Technology: AMS AMS.CH -4.3% (bond issue), Imagination Technologies IMG.UK +32.1%(takeover), Nets NETS.DK 6.4% (takeover offer)

Speakers

(UK) BOE Financial Policy Committee: Reiterates plan to lift capital buffer in November - Statement

-German IFO economists: The index in Manufacturing fell significantly, the industrial companies were at a high level significantly less satisfied with their current situation

- Banks would suffer losses of £30B in stress test

-(FR) ECB's Villeroy (France): Sees French GDP growth as fast as 1.7% in 2017

-OPEC Sec Gen Barkindo: Outlook for Global Oil market is improving

-(JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Gov Kuroda: Reiterates to continue with powerful monetary easing to reach 2% inflation as soon as possible - speech in Osaka

Currencies

- Politics dominated currency trading as both euro and kiwi fell against their major trading partners following the German and New Zealand elections

- USD/KRW won led gains as tensions eased on the Korean peninsula

Fixed Income

- Bund futures trade at 161.69 up 53 ticks following the German elections and disappointing IFO release. Continued downside targets 161.03 while upside resistance stands initially at 162.07, followed by 163.27.

- Gilt futures trade at 124.07 up 26 ticks following Moody’s downgrade on late Friday. Continued downside eyeing 123.26. Upside targets 124.90 then 125.24.

- Monday's liquidity report showed Friday’s excess liquidity rose to €1.743T from €1.734T and use of the marginal lending facility rose to €122M from €116M.

- Corporate issuance saw $16.7B last week via 31 tranches, bringing YTD issuance to above $1.04T. For the week ahead analysts forecast around $15-20B to come to market.
In Euro denominated issuance ~€26.9B came to market via 40 issuers and 48 tranches

Looking Ahead

- 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey

- 07:30 (TR) Turkey Sept Capacity Utilization: No est v 78.8% prior

- 07:30 (TR) Turkey Sept Real Sector Confidence (Seasonally Adj): No est v 110.2 prior; Real Sector Confidence (unadj): No est v 110.2 prior

- 08:05 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

- 08:30 (US) Aug Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.25e v -0.01 prior

- 09:00 (CN) China Aug Conference Board Leading Economic Index

- 09:00 (MX) Mexico July IGAE Economic Activity (Monthly GDP) Y/Y: No est v 2.4% prior

- 10:30 (US) Sept Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 11.5e v 17 prior

- 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report

Author

TradeTheNews.com Staff

TradeTheNews.com Staff

TradeTheNews.com

Trade The News is the active trader’s most trusted source for live, real-time breaking financial news and analysis.

More from TradeTheNews.com Staff
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds losses near 1.1850 as US, China holidays keep trade muted

EUR/USD opens the week on a softer note, trading near 1.1860 during the Asian session on Monday. Activity is likely to remain muted, with United States markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday, while Mainland China is also shut for the week-long Lunar New Year break.

GBP/USD flat lines as traders await key UK macro data and FOMC minutes

The GBP/USD pair kicks off a new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow range, just below mid-1.3600s, during the Asian session. Moreover, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive traders as the market focus now shifts to this week's important releases from the UK and the US.

Gold remains below $5,050 despite Fed rate cut bets, uncertain geopolitical tensions

Gold edges lower after registering over 2% gains in the previous session, trading around $5,030 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. However, the non-interest-bearing Gold could further gain ground following softer January Consumer Price Index figures, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates later this year.

Top Crypto Losers: Dogecoin, Zcash, Bonk – Meme and Privacy coins under pressure

Meme coins such as Dogecoin and Bonk, alongside the privacy coin Zcash (ZEC), are leading the broader market losses over the last 24 hours. DOGE, ZEC, and BONK ended their three consecutive days of recovery with a sudden decline on Sunday, as crucial resistance levels capped the gains. Technically, the altcoins show downside risk, starting the week under pressure.

Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation

Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.