European FX Outlook: With European markets off for Whit day liquidity is set to be lower

What you need to know before markets open

• The US-China trade talks continue with China refusing $200 billion trade compensation demanded, saying the trade talks are moving in positive direction.
• The US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin declared the US trade war with China "on hold" after the agreement was reached to drop their tariff threats that had roiled global markets at the beginning of this year.
• European markets in Germany, France, Italy and Spain are off in observance of Whit Monday.
• Lower liquidity is expected to see the FX market moves range bound and less extended.

Monday’s market moving events

• New Zealand core retail sales rose 0.6% Q/Q in March quarter down from 1.8% Q/Q in previous quarter missing market expectations.
• The UK Rightmove home price index rose 0.4% m/m in April to the new record high of £305,732.
• Chicago Fed index is expected to rise to 0.14 in April from 0.10 in March.
• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic is due to speak on "Welfare Economics: Trade & A Review of Principles" at the Atlanta Economics Club at 16:15 GMT.
• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker is expected to speak at the Chief Executives Organization's CEO Financial Seminar 2018 - Visionary Investing: Managing Late Cycle Risks and Opportunities in New Yor at 18:05 GMT.
• Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari is set to participate in a Town Hall Forum in Escanaba, Michigan at 20:00 GMT.

Major market movers

• European markets in Germany, France, Italy and Spain are off in observance of Whit Monday.
• Lower liquidity is expected to see the FX market moves range bound and less extended.

Friday’s macro summary

• German factory gate inflation is expected rose 0.5% m/m in April while accelerating to 2.0% y/y.
• German wholesale prices rose 0.4% m/m while rising 1.4% y/y in April.
• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester is scheduled to speak about macroprudential and monetary policy at the Third Annual European Central Bank Macroprudential Policy and Research Conference in Frankfurt at 7:00 GMT.
• The Eurozone current account surplus rose well above expectation to €32.0 billion in March.
• Canada’s retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in April with core retail sales falling -0.2% m/m.
• Canada’s core inflation rose 0.1% m/m while increasing 1.5% y/y in April. Headline CPI decelerated to 2.2% y/y in April.
• Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard said in a speech on community banking that some rules on low-income lending can be modernized.