European FX Outlook: Life after striking Syria sees US Dollar little changed

What you need to know before markets open

  • The US-led military strike against Syria’s alleged chemical arms infrastructure was a one-time move according to the UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson even as the US signaled it’s ready to punish the Middle Eastern country again if it keeps using banned weapons.
  • Former FBI director Comey calls US President Trump “morally unfit”  in ABC News interview.
  • The UK house prices continue to rise on the national average basis while housing prices in London fall for the seventh month in a row.
  • European macro-calendar is empty on Monday shifting focus on sentiment and the US retail sales data due on Monday afternoon.

Monday’s market moving events

  • The Rightmove UK house price index rose to an all-time record in March with the average UK house price jumping up 1.5% m/m while rising 201% over the year in March to £304.504 with house prices in London falling for the seventh consecutive month on the annual rate basis.
  • German whole price index is expected to increase 0.3% m/m in March.
  • Swiss factory gate inflation is due to rise 0.3% m/m in March while increasing 2.3% y/y.
  • The New York Empire State manufacturing survey is seen decelerating to 20.1 in April.
  • The US retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% m/m in March while the part of the retail sales called control group, that is included in the GDP is seen rising 0.4% m/m.
  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak at the Shoals Chamber of Commerce in Florence, Alabama at 17:15 GMT.

Major market movers

  • The US Dollar traded little changed on US Dollar Index basis losing some against antipodean while raising in value against European counterparts.
  • The US-led military intervention in Syria did not spur any massive currency market reaction as it is seen as being unilateral and once-off action.

Friday’s macro summary

  • China’s trade balance recorded an unexpected deficit of $4.98 billion in March with exports falling 2.7% y/y while imports rose 14.4% over the year in US Dollar terms.
  • German inflation rose 1.6% over the year in March on a national basis while rising 1.5% y/y on European harmonized basis, meeting the forecast.
  • The Eurozone trade surplus in goods reached a surplus €18.9 billion in February.
  • Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren backed at least three more U.S. rate hikes this year.
  • St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said he wants FOMC statement updated to show that Fed is already at or near neutral rate.
  • University of Michigan consumer confidence decelerated unexpectedly strongly to 97,8 in April.
  • Speech of Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan in Odessa had been canceled on Friday.

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