Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
EUR/USD
We have seen the development of an impressive rally over the past week. Intraday corrections being bought into has been a key feature during a run of strong bull candles. The euro bulls fought back strongly on Friday to close decisively higher, but it looks as though they are going to have another fight on their hands today. The technicals on the daily chart look positive still as Stochastics advance well, RSI has moved above 50 and the MACD lines only just bull cross. However, digging a little deeper, the hourly chart shows negative divergences on the hourly RSI and MACD lines. As the pair has dropped in the Asian session, as the Europeans take over, the old pivot around $1.1050 will be an important first gauge. If this support can hold, then the bulls will begin to find some confidence in the session. Also the rising 55 hour moving average (around $1.1035) has each of the past four corrections in the past week. The hourly RSI falling below 40 and hourly MACD lines falling below neutral would be negative signals too. The key support is at $1.0950 which is a growing pivot now. Resistance is at $1.1145 initially and above that is $1.1240.
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