EUR/USD: technical analysis of the moment and recommendations

Yuri Papshev Independent Analyst

At the beginning of the American session on Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair declines, reaching the first important support level 1.1845 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). Since the pair, since May of this year, has maintained a long-term positive trend, remaining within the upward channel on the daily chart (the lower border of the channel passes through the 1.1780 mark (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction in the wave of the pair's decline from 1.3870, which began in May 2014), and the upper one is near the level of 1.2180, through which the resistance level in the form of the 50% Fibonacci level passes), then it would be logical to place a buy order from this support level, i.e. "by-the-market" at the moment.

In case of further decline, another pending buy order will be appropriate near the support level of 1.1780 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).

There is a high probability of a rebound from the support levels 1.1845, 1.1784 and a return of the EUR / USD pair to an uptrend. In this case, and after the breakdown of the resistance levels 1.1960 (ЕМА144 on the monthly chart), 1.2010 (local September highs and highs of the year), 1.2075 (ЕМА200 on the monthly chart), the level of 1.2180 will become the next growth target for EUR/USD.

In the alternative scenario, EUR/USD will break through the support level of 1.1780 and head towards the support level 1.1705 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).

Further decline in EUR/USD in the current situation is unlikely - the dollar is under pressure from strong fundamental factors.

Perhaps the only strong argument and chance for the dollar to return to an uptrend is the change in the direction of the FRS monetary policy, which is extremely unlikely in the current situation.

The dollar remains vulnerable amid the Fed's aggressively stimulating monetary policy, the progress of the coronavirus pandemic in the country, and political unrest and uncertainty ahead of the presidential election in November.

Only a return to the zone below the support levels of 1.1340 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6%) will mark the resumption of the bearish trend.

Support levels: 1.1845, 1.1780, 1.1705, 1.1490, 1.1400, 1.1340, 1.1285

Resistance levels: 1.1900, 1.1960, 1.2010, 1.2075, 1.2180, 1.2340, 1.2580

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1685. Stop-Loss 1.1720. Take-Profit 1.1600, 1.1490, 1.1400, 1.1340, 1.1285

Buy by market. Buy Limit 1.1780, 1.1710. Stop-Loss 1.1685. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1960, 1.2010, 1.2075, 1.2180, 1.2340, 1.2580

Author

Yuri Papshev

Independent Analyst

Independent trader and analyst at Forex market. Trade experience - more than 10 years. In trade Yuri Papshev uses a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

USD/JPY eyes August swing low, near 155.20 ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY retests the August monthly swing low during the Asian session on Friday as a more hawkish repricing of BoJ rate-hike bets and a suspected intervention continue to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses amid soft US bond yields, further weighing on the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200; US NFP awaited

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7200, near its highest level since mid-May, as bulls await the US NFP report for more cues on the Fed's policy path before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level in over a week and acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the RBA's hawkish tilt.

Gold tumbles as blockbuster US NFP lift US Dollar, Treasury yields

Gold (XAU/USD) falls sharply on Friday, snapping a two-day recovery after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised strongly to the upside. The metal briefly climbed above $4,500 on Thursday, gaining nearly 2%, but has since erased a large part of that advance.

Crypto’s $638 million buyback boom may not be as bullish as it looks

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols reportedly spent $638 million to buy back their native tokens in August, up 17% from a year earlier. On the surface, the buyback trend suggests the cryptocurrency industry is maturing fast, adopting one of Wall Street’s oldest tools to bolster valuations and distribute revenue. The headline becomes less impressive once the number is opened up.

Why hawkish Bank of Japan expectations aren't enough to sustain the Japanese Yen rally

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced a sudden burst higher after falling back below the 160.00 psychological mark against the US Dollar (USD) earlier this week amid a more hawkish repricing of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.