EUR/USD Price Forecast: Timid buying as sentiment improves

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1604

Hopes for a soon-to-come end to the Iran war boosted the market’s mood.
Upbeat United States data reinforces the positive sentiment.
EUR/USD is modestly bullish in the near term, resistance at 1.1640.

The US Dollar (USD) is under selling pressure on Wednesday, weighed by a better market mood. Optimism revolves around the Iran war, as United States (US) President Donald Trump said the US will be leaving Iran within two or three weeks, while speaking at the White House on Tuesday. President Trump will address the nation on Thursday to provide an update on the war. The headline was enough to pull EUR/USD higher.

Early on Wednesday, however, President Trump said he is considering pulling the country out of NATO, given allies' reluctance to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He also shared a post in Truth Social, claiming Iran’s President asked for a ceasefire, something he would consider when the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

The EUR/USD pair retreated from an intraday peak of 1.1623 following the release of encouraging US data. The country published the ADP Employment Change report, which showed the private sector added 62K new jobs in March, beating the 40K expected, while slightly below the previous 66K. Additionally, Retail Sales rose by 0.6% MoM in February, better than the 0.5% anticipated and the previous -0.1%.

In the upcoming hours, multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers will be on the wires, while S&P Global will publish the US March Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Right afterward, it will be the turn for the ISM Manufacturing PMI for the same month. The figures will paint a picture of US growth and provide hints on employment and inflation status.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the 4-hour chart shows that EUR/USD is mildly bullish, as the pair holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.1518, which is advancing below a flatter 100-period SMA at 1.1538. The pair, however, remains below the descending 200-period SMA around 1.1640, preserving a broader corrective backdrop. At the same time, the Momentum stays above 0 and extends higher, while the Relative Strength Index near 66 keeps buying pressure in focus.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD bearish strength recedes as spot holds above the 20-day SMA, which edges lower and caps the downside near 1.1550. Price also trades beneath the flattening 100- and 200-day SMAs around 1.17, keeping the broader tone under pressure. Fourteen-day Momentum has turned back above 0 from deeply negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds toward 50 from prior oversold readings, indicating that the latest bounce is corrective within a now-fragile downside structure.

Initial support emerges at the 1.1550/1.1540 band, where recent lows align with the 100-period SMA, followed by a deeper floor at 1.1500, which coincides with prior consolidation and the rising 20-period SMA zone on any pullback. On the topside, immediate resistance stands at the 200-period SMA around 1.1640, and above there, 1.1680 caps the next bullish extension area in line with the broader declining average cluster.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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