EUR/USD Price Forecast: Still ranging, mounting uncertainty favors the downside

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1650

• Uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s leadership weighs on investor sentiment.
• Retail Sales in the United States rose by more than anticipated in November.
• EUR/USD remains stuck to familiar levels, risks declines amid mounting risk aversion.

Major pairs made little progress throughout the first half of Wednesday, with EUR/USD still trading around 1.1650. Market participants are still struggling to find a clear directional catalyst, as the United States (US) political noise blurs perspectives.

Uncertainty is also related to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) leadership and future monetary policy. And is not just about the latest headlines showing that the US Justice Department launched a criminal case into Chair Jerome Powell. Doubts are mostly related to who will replace Powell, whose term ends this May.

US President Donald Trump said multiple times he was ready to announce his replacement, but as of today, she once again delayed the announcement and said it will happen within the next few weeks. Would the next Fed head be a dove or a hawk? Would he or she follow Trump or be an independent leader? As long as those questions remain unanswered, it will be tough for the US Dollar (USD) to find its way.

The pair remained mute early in the American session following the release of US data. The country reported that Retail Sales were up 0.6% in November, although the core reading, Retail Sales Control Group, came in at 0.4%, while the October reading was downwardly revised to 0.6% from 0.8%.

Additionally, the US published the October and November Producer Price Index (PPI) figures. The core annual PPI stood at 3% in November, higher than the 2.9% reported in October. Additionally, September reading was upwardly revised from 2.6% to 2.9%. The figures, while not outrageous, indicate that inflation remained sticky in the last quarter of 2025.

The USD ticked higher with the news, but remains within familiar levels against most major rivals. Wall Street, however, is under pressure, hinting at mounting risk-aversion.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

Technically, the EUR/USD is neutral to bearish. The 4-hour chart shows a mildly bearish 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) extends its slide below the 200 and 100 SMAs, while the pair holds below all three, preserving a bearish bias. The 20 SMA at 1.1656 acts as immediate dynamic resistance. At the same time, the Momentum indicator accelerates lower after piercing its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads nowhere at 42, signaling subdued buying interest and absent speculative interest.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has started to roll over at 1.1719, still positioned above the 100- and 200-day SMAs. The 100-day SMA is flat at 1.1666, while the 200-day SMA continues to rise at 1.1582, the latter drawing a line in the sand for buyers.

Momentum sits below its neutral line and extends lower, in line with strengthening bearish pressure. Finally, the RSI hovers around 41, confirming a negative tilt. A push above the 100-day SMA at 1.1666 could open room toward the 20-day SMA at 1.1719, while a daily close beneath the 200-day SMA at 1.1582 would expose further downside.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)