EUR/USD Price Forecast: Corrective slide not enough to spook buyers

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0906

Geopolitical woes take centre stage with focus on Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East.
German encouraging headlines helped EUR/USD reach a fresh 2025 high.
EUR/USD finding near-term buyers around 1.0900, corrective slide at sight.

The EUR/USD pair peaked at 1.0954 on Tuesday, a fresh 2025 high. However, the pair retreated ahead of the American session opening and struggles to retain the 1.0900 mark.

Tensions revolve around geopolitical woes. On the one hand, United States (US) President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are meant to speak about the normalization of the two countries' relationship and the end of the Russia-Ukraine war. On the other hand, the Middle East war resumed. Hamas rejected the US proposal for extending the ceasefire, leading to fresh Israel military operations.

Headlines also came from Germany. The head of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) Lars Klingbeil addressed the Bundestag to unlock up to €1 trillion in new spending to boost the country’s defence and invest in infrastructure. He referred to Russian brutality in Ukraine and the unpredictability of the US government, claiming the need to defend European freedom.

Additionally, Germany released the ZEW Survey on Economic Sentiment, which improved in March to 51.6 from the previous 26, also beating the 48.1 expected. Sentiment in the Eurozone (EU) in the same period surged to 39.8 from 24.2 in February. However, the assessment of the German current situation remained in the red, printing at -87.6, worse than the -80.5 anticipated.

Across the pond, the US released some housing figures and other minor data. Building Permits were down 1.3% in February, while Housing Starts rose 11.2% in the same month. At the same time, the Export Price Index increased 0.1%, while the Import Price Index was up 0.4% in the same period. The upbeat figures gave the Greenback a near-term boost.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair retains its dominant bullish stance. The daily chart shows it made a higher high and a higher low despite shedding some modest intraday ground. At the same time, technical indicators consolidate within overbought levels without signs of bullish exhaustion. Additionally, EUR/USD develops above all its moving averages, with a firmly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) extending its advance above a flat 100 SMA and about to conquer ground above a flat 200 SMA.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD is on the brink of starting a corrective slide. The pair is barely holding above its 20 SMA, which turned flat, providing dynamic support at around 1.0885. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, maintain sharp upward slopes far below the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators have turned firmly south, albeit still holding above their midlines.

Support levels: 1.0895 1.0830 1.0790

Resistance levels: 1.0925 1.0960 1.1000

Premium

You have reached your limit of 3 free articles for this month.

Start your subscription and get access to all our original articles.

Subscribe to Premium Sign In

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

EUR/USD remains below 1.1850 after US data

EUR/USD struggles to gain traction and trades in a narrow range below 1.1850 on Wednesday. The US Dollar stays resilient against its rivals following the better-than-expected Durable Goods Orders and housing data, limiting the pair's upside ahead of FOMC Minutes.

GBP/USD stays in narrow channel above 1.3550 ahead of FOMC Minutes

GBP/USD holds its ground following Tuesday's slide and moves sideways above 1.3550 midweek. Although the data from the UK confirmed that inflation cooled in January, the positive shift seen in market mood helps the pair keep its footing as investors wait for the Fed to publish the minnutes of the January policy meeting.

Gold regains some shine, retargets $5,000 ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold gathers fresh upside traction on Wednesday, leaving part of the weakness seen at the beginning of the week and refocusing its attention to the key $5,000 mark per troy ounce, all ahead of the release of the FOMC Minutes and despite the modest uptick in the US Dollar.

Pi Network rally defies market pressure ahead of its first anniversary

Pi Network is trading above $0.1900 at press time on Wednesday, extending the weekly gains by nearly 8% so far. The steady recovery is supported by a short-term pause in mainnet migration, which reduces pressure on the PI token supply for Centralized Exchanges. The technical outlook focuses on the $0.1919 resistance as bullish momentum increases.

Mixed UK inflation data no gamechanger for the Bank of England

Food inflation plunged in January, but service sector price pressure is proving stickier. We continue to expect Bank of England rate cuts in March and June. The latest UK inflation read is a mixed bag for the Bank of England, but we doubt it drastically changes the odds of a March rate cut.

Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple face downside risk as bears regain control

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple remain under pressure on Wednesday, with the broader trend still sideways. BTC is edging below $68,000, nearing the lower consolidating boundary, while ETH and XRP also declined slightly, approaching their key supports.