EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears paused, await a fresh catalyst

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1841

• The Hamburg Commercial Bank upwardly revised the EU Manufacturing PMIs.
• The US Dollar retains its latest strength, but paused its rally.
• The EUR/USD pair pressures the lower end of its latest range, downside still limited.

The EUR/USD pair consolidates around last week’s close, confined to a tight intraday range on Monday. In fact, the US Dollar (USD) is pretty stable across the FX board, with little action beyond commodities. Silver and Gold edged sharply lower at the beginning of the day, although both recovered ahead of the American opening, trading pretty much flat for the day.

Encouraging news coming from the Old Continent were not enough to boost demand for the Euro (EUR) in the near term. The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) upwardly reviewed the January Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs), confirming the EU index at 49.5, slightly better than the flash estimate of 49.4. The German index was reported at 49.1 against the previous estimation of 48.7.

Later in the day, S&P Global will publish the United States (US) January Manufacturing PMI, while ISM will release its own version of manufacturing output from the same period.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is bearish. The pair trades below a bearish 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) but remains above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, which provide support at 1.1755. At the same time, the Momentum indicator slips below its midline and extends lower, signaling weakening near-term drive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) accelerates south and currently stands at 40.5, reinforcing a bearish tilt.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades above all its moving averages, somehow limiting the bearish potential despite the latest sharp slide. The 20-day SMA maintains its bullish slope above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, which also aim higher, signaling sustained bullish control. The 20-day SMA sits at 1.1747 as first dynamic support, while the 100-day at 1.1678 and the 200-day at 1.1610 reinforce the base. Finally, the Momentum indicator remains positive, stabilizing above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator flattens around 56, maintaining a mild bullish bias despite a slight pullback. A sustained hold above the 20-day SMA at 1.1747 would keep the path open for trend extension, whereas a break below that level would expose the 100-day SMA at 1.1678, with deeper support at the 200-day SMA at 1.1610.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)