EUR/USD outlook: Bears hold grip but prolonged consolidation may precede fresh push lower

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

EUR/USD

EURUSD weakened on Friday after recovery attempts from new multi-month low (1.0682), hit after Wednesday’s post-election 1.7% fall (the biggest daily loss since 19 Mar 2020), failed to clear daily Tenkan-sen (1.0809).

Formation of bull-trap pattern on daily chart adds to weak near term outlook as Wednesday’s massive bearish daily candle weighs heavily, technical studies remain in full bearish setup and converging weekly Tenkan/Kijun-sen are about to form bear-cross.

However, bears continue to face headwinds from a false break of Fibo support at 1.0745 (76.4% retracement of 1.0601/1.1214 ascend) with weekly close above this level to add to signals that bears are likely to consolidate before resuming the larger downtrend.

Long shadows on weekly candlestick contribute to scenario.

Near-term bias to remain with bears while daily Tenkan-sen caps, with potential extended upticks to be capped under pivotal 200DMA barrier (1.0868).

Res: 1.0835; 1.0848; 1.0869; 1.0907.
Sup: 1.0761; 1.0745; 1.0700; 1.0682.

Interested in EUR/USD technicals? Check out the key levels

1. R3 1.0959
2. R2 1.0892
3. R1 1.0847
PP 1.078
1. S1 1.0735
2. S2 1.0668
3. S3 1.0624

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

AUD/USD turns lower toward 0.7000 after mixed Australian jobs data

AUD/USD is losing ground toward 0.7000 in the Asian session on Thursday, following the release of the Australian August jobs report, which showed that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6% versus 4.5% expected, while Employment Change beat estimates, arriving at 39.5K. Traders also remain unnerved ahead of the critical Trump-Xi meeting.

USD/JPY keeps the red near 158.00 as Japanese Yen firms up

USD/JPY retreats from three-week highs and holds losses near 158.00 in the Asian session on Thursday. Surging Japanese bond yields lift the Yen amid looming intervention risks, while the US Dollar preserves overnight gains to a two-month high amid hawkish Fed bets and elevated US bond yields.

Gold bears tighten their grip as Fed rate hike bets rise

Gold sticks to a negative bias for the second straight day, trading below the $4,300 mark or a one-week low during the first half of the European session as traders await a crucial meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Expectations for a major announcement are low, though market players will look for any progress on rare earths, technology restrictions, and an extension of the current US-China truce.

XRP is flashing three bullish signals heading into a historically weak October

XRP (XRP) is still flashing 3 bullish signals across its holders, derivatives, and ETF data. These signals come as the token gave back part of its September gains on Thursday. The token traded near $1.50 at press time, down about 6.3% over 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto Markets data. The pullback still leaves XRP up over 15.6% on the week, a gain that tracks a broader market rally.

Advanced economies: From one example of resilience to another

History tends to repeat itself in advanced economies. Once again, growth ultimately fell short of expectations by only a small margin in the first half of 2026, despite the conflict in Iran. As early as 2025, the impact of tariffs was less severe than feared.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.