EUR/USD Forecast: Risk perception to drive the pair's action

EUR/USD has managed to gain traction early Thursday.
An extended rebound in Wall Street's main indexes could help the pair push higher.
Euro needs to clear 1.0680 hurdle to attract buyers.

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

Following Wednesday's choppy action, EUR/USD has gained traction and climbed into the upper half of its weekly range near 1.0650. Ahead of the Christmas holiday, the trading action remains subdued and the pair could have a difficult time making a decisive move in either direction. Nevertheless, EUR/USD should be able to edge higher in case risk flows dominate the financial markets in the second half of the day.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its final estimate of the annualized third-quarter Gross Domestic Product growth, which is expected to match the previous estimate of 2.9%. The US Department of Labor's weekly initial Jobless Claims and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index will also be featured in the US economic docket.

Market participants, however, are unlikely to pay much attention to these figures and stay focused on risk perception. There won't be any high-impact data releases from the Eurozone on Thursday.

Following Wednesday's strong rebound, Wall Street's main indexes look to open modestly higher with US stock index futures rising between 0.25% and 0.4%.

If the infamous 'Santa rally' is witnessed and US stocks gather bullish momentum after the opening bell, the US Dollar is could come under renewed bearish pressure.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD near-term technical outlook points to a slightly bullish bias with the pair holding above the 20-period and the 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) on the four-hour chart. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index indicator on the same chart stays above 50.

1.0680 (end-point of the latest uptrend, static level) aligns as first resistance before 1.0700 (psychological level) and 1.0735 (December 15 high).

On the downside, first support is located at 1.0620 (20-period SMA, 50-period SMA) ahead of 1.0580 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.0560 (100-period SMA).

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Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

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