EUR/USD Forecast: Partying with the Fed doves but entering overbought conditions

EUR/USD is getting comfortable above 1.1500 on the dovish Fed decision.
Euro-zone data poises risks for common currency.
The four-hour chart shows potentially overbought conditions.

Yohay Elam FXStreet

EUR/USD is on the rise, extending its gains from late on Wednesday. The dovish decision by the US Federal Reserve is the dominant driver in markets.

While the Fed left its policy unchanged, it made significant changes to its message. They pledged patience on raising rates amid rising uncertainty stemming from more signs of weaker Chinese and European growth, Brexit risks, the US government shutdown, and other factors.

The world's most powerful central bank also announced that it is examining the balance sheet reduction program that spooked markets. Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues will announce more details in the coming meetings.

All in all, the Fed made a decisive dovish shift, and the greenback reacted with a fall across the board.

See: Fed Quick Analysis: 5 Dollar downers in the Fed decision, and why the sell-off may continue

While markets continue digesting the Fed decision, quite a few data points are coming out of the old continent. Germany reported another disappointing number: retail sales plunged by a whopping 4.3% in December, far worse than expected.

Italy is due to report a second consecutive drop in its output in Q4, thus officially entering a recession. The GDP for the euro-zone as a whole is projected to show a meager increase of 0.2%, repeating the figure from Q3.

In the US, the new home sales report will be watched for further signs of weakness in this sector. Quite a few figures are still delayed due to the government shutdown.

Trade talks between the US and China culminate in Washington as President Donald Trump meets Chinese Premier Liu He. It seems that China is not ceding ground to American demands.

The fresh Caixin Manufacturing PMI from the world's second-largest economy showed a slight improvement, perhaps adding to the calm approach. Any dramatic news may shift markets' attention from the Fed to trade.

EUR/USD Technical analysis - overbought conditions?

EUR USD Technical Analysis January 31 2019

The Relative Strength Index on the four-hour chart is just above 70, indicating that EUR/USD entered overbought conditions. On the other hand, Momentum remains upbeat and the pair trades above the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages.

The next upside resistance is 1.1540 which was the high point earlier in the month. 1.1570 is the current 2019 peak, recorded in the first days of the year. 1.1620 and 1.1725 are lines dating back to the autumn of 2018.

1.1490 was a high point in mid-January and serves the first support line. 1.1450 capped euro/dollar just before the recent rise. 1.1425 held the pair late in January. 1.1405 was the low point just before the surge and 1.1390 is the weekly low.

More: EUR/USD eyes 1.1540 after the Fed's dovish decision – Confluence Detector

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

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