EUR/USD Forecast: Looking good and facing critical resistance amid Brexit hopes and market calm


  • EUR/USD is trading above 1.1300, consolidating its gains.
  • A mix of Brexit optimism and market calm helps it rise.
  • The technical picture is positive for the pair that now faces a crucial test.

EUR/USD is consolidating its gains above 1.1300. The pair has now erased all the price it lost after the ECB made its dovish shift precisely one week ago. 

Brexit is behind some of the moves. The British Parliament voted to avoid a no-deal Brexit in a stricter version than the government wanted. Wednesday's late vote included chaotic scenes, but the lower prospects of an immediate exit and hopes for a lengthy extension coming from the EU sent the pound high.

The substantial move in the pound had a secondary effect on the common currency as well. 

Elsewhere, markets remain calm. US durable goods orders came out better than expected on the core numbers, and markets ignored the headline figures. Chinese industrial output and retail sales were not impressive, but met early forecasts and added to the sense of calm.

Concerns about the German economy prevail, but they are not new. The German economy ministry said that 2019 saw a slow start due to external factors, but that the continent's powerhouse continued enjoying growth. The respected IFO Think-Tank slashed its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% from 1.1% beforehand, but see a rebound with 1.8% in 2020. 

The economic calendar is lighter today: US jobless claims, import prices, and new home sales are all of interest, but Brexit developments will likely have the upper hand.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR USD technical analysis March 14 2019

EUR/USD enjoys upside Momentum, and it broke above the 50 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart earlier this week. The Relative Strength Index is shy of 70, thus not pointing to overbought conditions. 

The only missing component is a break above the 200 SMA which comes out at 1.1342 at the time of writing and is nearing the high point seen yesterday. Breaking above this confluence is critical for the next move up, but the pair may also be rejected at this cap.

The next resistance line is 1.1360 which provided support in February. It is followed by 1.1410 and 1.1420 that were high points in late February/early March. 

Looking down, 1.1310 was the low point earlier and also supported the pair in early March. 1.1285 is where the 50 SMA meets the chart and a support line from last week. 1.1275 was a stepping stone on the way up and also a swing low from mid-February. 1.1245, 1.1235, and 1.1220 are next.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD remains depressed but off daily lows

The EUR/USD pair is recovering from a daily low of 1.1216, although holding in negative territory for the day. US preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved by less-than-anticipated in July, coming in at 98.4 vs. the 98.5 expected.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD trading marginally lower daily basis but above 1.2500

The Pound gave back some of its Thursday’s gain on dollar’s relief. The GBP/USD pair broke a daily descendant trend line coming from June’s high and holds above it, leaving little room for sellers to act.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: bears pausing, still in control

Japanese National Inflation steady at 0.7%YoY in June. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index expected at 98.5 in July. USD/JPY corrective advance falling short of signaling an interim bottom in place.

USD/JPY News

Something has spooked the Fed

We wish we knew what it is. Wild talk of the US joining Japan and Europe with zero or negative return on the 10-year is or should be very frightening.

Read more

Gold consolidates around $ 1440, eyes US data for fresh direction

Gold (futures on Comex) extends its side-trend around the 1440 mark into the mid-European session, having stalled its retreat from 2019 highs of 1454 near 1437 region.

Gold News

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures