EUR/USD Forecast: Looking good and facing critical resistance amid Brexit hopes and market calm


  • EUR/USD is trading above 1.1300, consolidating its gains.
  • A mix of Brexit optimism and market calm helps it rise.
  • The technical picture is positive for the pair that now faces a crucial test.

EUR/USD is consolidating its gains above 1.1300. The pair has now erased all the price it lost after the ECB made its dovish shift precisely one week ago. 

Brexit is behind some of the moves. The British Parliament voted to avoid a no-deal Brexit in a stricter version than the government wanted. Wednesday's late vote included chaotic scenes, but the lower prospects of an immediate exit and hopes for a lengthy extension coming from the EU sent the pound high.

The substantial move in the pound had a secondary effect on the common currency as well. 

Elsewhere, markets remain calm. US durable goods orders came out better than expected on the core numbers, and markets ignored the headline figures. Chinese industrial output and retail sales were not impressive, but met early forecasts and added to the sense of calm.

Concerns about the German economy prevail, but they are not new. The German economy ministry said that 2019 saw a slow start due to external factors, but that the continent's powerhouse continued enjoying growth. The respected IFO Think-Tank slashed its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% from 1.1% beforehand, but see a rebound with 1.8% in 2020. 

The economic calendar is lighter today: US jobless claims, import prices, and new home sales are all of interest, but Brexit developments will likely have the upper hand.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR USD technical analysis March 14 2019

EUR/USD enjoys upside Momentum, and it broke above the 50 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart earlier this week. The Relative Strength Index is shy of 70, thus not pointing to overbought conditions. 

The only missing component is a break above the 200 SMA which comes out at 1.1342 at the time of writing and is nearing the high point seen yesterday. Breaking above this confluence is critical for the next move up, but the pair may also be rejected at this cap.

The next resistance line is 1.1360 which provided support in February. It is followed by 1.1410 and 1.1420 that were high points in late February/early March. 

Looking down, 1.1310 was the low point earlier and also supported the pair in early March. 1.1285 is where the 50 SMA meets the chart and a support line from last week. 1.1275 was a stepping stone on the way up and also a swing low from mid-February. 1.1245, 1.1235, and 1.1220 are next.

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