EUR/USD Forecast: Euro looks to test 1.1000
- EUR/USD regained its traction after closing in negative territory on Friday.
- The pair's near-term technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias stays intact.
- Euro could target 1.1000 once it clears 1.0950.
EUR/USD closed in negative territory on Friday but still gained more than 1% in the previous week. Following a quiet Asian session on Monday, the pair regained its traction and rose toward 1.0950.
Hawkish comments from New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President helped the US Dollar hold its ground ahead of the weekend and caused EUR/USD to erase a small portion of its weekly gains. Williams said that they were not currently discussing rate cuts and argued that the market may be overreacting. In the meantime, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said over the weekend that he did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut at the policy meeting in March and made it difficult for the USD to preserve its strength to start the new week.
On the other hand, Reuters reported that the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers were unlikely to consider a policy pivot before March. Citing seven sources familiar with the matter, the news outlet said that officials thought that it would be difficult to cut key rates before June.
Euro price in the last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies in the last 7 days. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -1.51% | -1.19% | -1.55% | -2.19% | -1.85% | -1.96% | -1.28% | |
| EUR | 1.48% | 0.30% | -0.04% | -0.67% | -0.35% | -0.46% | 0.26% | |
| GBP | 1.19% | -0.30% | -0.35% | -0.98% | -0.65% | -0.76% | -0.07% | |
| CAD | 1.53% | 0.05% | 0.34% | -0.63% | -0.30% | -0.41% | 0.28% | |
| AUD | 2.14% | 0.67% | 0.96% | 0.63% | 0.32% | 0.22% | 0.90% | |
| JPY | 1.82% | 0.32% | 0.54% | 0.31% | -0.35% | -0.12% | 0.58% | |
| NZD | 1.92% | 0.45% | 0.75% | 0.41% | -0.22% | 0.11% | 0.68% | |
| CHF | 1.25% | -0.23% | 0.06% | -0.28% | -0.91% | -0.58% | -0.68% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
There won't be any high-tier data releases that could potentially impact the pair's action on Monday and market participants will continue to pay close attention to comments from central bank officials.
In case Fed policymakers try to push back against the market expectation of a rate cut as early as March, EUR/USD's upside could remain limited. On the other hand, the Euro is likely to continue to outperform the USD if ECB policymakers rule out the possibility of a reduction in key rates before June.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
After retreating toward 50 on Friday, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart rose toward 60 early Monday, suggesting that the latest pullback was a technical correction and EUR/USD's bullish bias remains intact.
On the upside, the mid-point of the long-term ascending regression channel aligns as immediate resistance at 1.0950 before 1.1000 (psychological level), static level) and 1.1030 (upper limit of the ascending channel).
Interim support is located at 1.0900 (psychological level, static level) ahead of 1.0860 (100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), lower limit of the ascending channel) and 1.0830 (200-day SMA, 200-period SMA).
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
