EUR/USD: Euro trades stable near 1.1650 on a poor agenda's day

The single European currency is trading in a soft tone near the 1.1650 level at the start of the new week with investors remaining cautious and avoiding big bets.

Important fronts remain open, but they have created more confusion among investors than they have succeeded in giving the exchange rate any specific direction.

Political uncertainty in France remains at the top of investors' agenda and despite the provisional vote of confidence in the government, risks remain significant as passing the budget is currently the most important bet.

The decision by S&P to downgrade  French  credit rating was  quite expected and did not surprise the markets.

Meanwhile, the foggy landscape on the issue of trade tariffs remains, with President Trump reminding us of his controversial personality and enigmatic policies.

Geopolitical risks, despite positive developments on the Middle East front with the agreement between Israel and Hamas, remain significant as the Ukrainian issue is once again at an impasse.

In this environment of intense uncertainty, concern has been added about the health of part of the banking system in the United States, which has not yet become widespread but in any case remains a high-risk issue.

The thoughts expressed in the previous article that the exchange rate is most likely to remain in a consolidation environment, not far from current levels, have been fully confirmed and I do not see any significant reasons for it to change.

As today's agenda is extremely poor, the scenario of a limited range of variation holds a good  probability.