EUR/USD – Euro steady after positive week

EUR/USD has started the week with small gains. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1310, up 0.10% on the day. Last week, the pair climbed 0.7%, its best week since mid-March. It’s quiet on the fundamentals front, with no major events out of the eurozone. In the U.S., the Empire State manufacturing index is projected to jump to 8.0 in April. On Tuesday, Germany releases ZEW Economic Sentiment, with a forecast of 0.9 points.

U.S. inflation numbers showed improvement in March. CPI climbed to 0.4%, its highest gain since January 2018. The producer price index also looked strong, climbing 0.6%, a 5-month high. Inflation remains well below the Federal Reserve target of 2.0%, but stronger inflation numbers will bolster the case of Fed officials who favor raising rates in 2019 if the economic outlook improves. The Fed minutes from the March meeting left the door open to further rate hikes this year, but current market pricing suggests no hikes until 2020, and some analysts are expecting a cut in rates later this year.

The markets will be keeping a close eye on German ZEW economic sentiment, a key gauge of investor confidence. The indicator has been mired in negative territory for the past 12 months, but the scores have been improving. The April estimate stands at 0..9, which although not a strong gain, is symbolic for being in positive territory. If the indicator can meet or beat the forecast, the euro could respond with gains.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Monday (April 15)

• 6:00 German Buba Monthly Report

• 8:30 US FOMC Member Evans Speaks

• 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 8.1

• 13:00 US FOMC Member Evans Speaks

• 16:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases

• 20:00 US FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

Tuesday (April 16)

• 5:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate 0.9

• 5:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate 1.2

• 9:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 79.2%

• 9:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.2%

• 10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 63

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD posted small gains in the Asian session and is showing little movement in European trade

• 1.1300 is a fluid line. Currently, it is a weak support level

• 1.1434 is the next resistance line

• Current range: 1.1300 to 1.1434

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1300, 1.1212, 1.1120 and 1.1046

• Above: 1.1434, 1.1553 and 1.1622