|

EUR/USD: Euro remain under question as Germany's IFO disappoints again

The single European currency is showing mild signs of reaction and is trying to approach the level of 1,11 again after the new pressures it received during yesterday

But this effort is again under considerable doubt as the Ifo Institute's just-released data on the business climate and outlook for the German economy disappointed and appears to act as a drag on the European currency.

Disappointment in eurozone manufacturing data weighed on the European currency, sending it into a fifth straight day of losses, with aย  reminder that the clouds and the possibility of a recession inย  eurozone still remain.

And brought back to the table the big question of how the European currency will manage to continue a dynamic upward channel when the real economy remains vulnerable, several macroeconomic fundamentals continue to disappoint and the continued rise in key interest rates is more likely to complicate things than give a significant boost to the European economy.

Corresponding data on the US economy had a mixed picture which helped the US currency maintain the interest it has gathered in recent days with the dollar index continuing a mild uptrend.

The general picture of the market remains attached to the decisions of the two central banks in the next few days regarding the increase in interest rates But mainly to the conclusions and perspectives that will arise from the statements of the Fed's & Ecb'sย  Presidents.

In today's agenda highlights is the Ifo Institute announcement on the course of the German economy and later in the dayย  the Consumer Confidence in US.

The announcement of the IFOย  Institute on the business climate and business sentiment of the German economy thatย  just anounced disappoints something that continues to maintain concerns about the European economy.

While Consumer confidence from the United States is also awaited with interest later in the noon.

Although both elements have increased weight the impact I believe will be temporary in the markets as interest remains elevated and bets limited with focus in the two very important next two days.

My thinking remains the same, I avoid positioning ahead of interest rate decisions and would consider buyingย  the euro on some sharp new dip with a short rebound target.

Author

Vasilis Tsaprounis

Vasilis Tsaprounis

Independent Analyst

Vassilis Tsaprounis possesses over 25 years of professional experience in Capital Markets and especially in the foreign exchange market.

More from Vasilis Tsaprounis
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD moves sideways below 1.1800 on Christmas Eve

EUR/USD struggles to find direction and trades in a narrow channel below 1.1800 after posting gains for two consecutive days. Bond and stock markets in the US will open at the usual time and close early on Christmas Eve, allowing the trading action to remain subdued. 

GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3500 amid quiet markets

GBP/USD keeps its range trade intact at around 1.3500 on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling holds the upper hand over the US Dollar amid pre-Christmas light trading as traders move to the sidelines heading into the holiday season. 

Gold retreats from record highs, trades below $4,500

Gold retreats after setting a new record-high above $4,520 earlier in the day and trades in a tight range below $4,500 as trading volumes thin out ahead of the Christmas break. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin slips below $87,000 as ETF outflows intensify, whale participation declines

Bitcoin price continues to trade around $86,770 on Wednesday, after failing to break above the $90,000 resistance. US-listed spot ETFs record an outflow of $188.64 million on Tuesday, marking the fourth consecutive day of withdrawals.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Avalanche struggles near $12 as Grayscale files updated form for ETF

Avalanche trades close to $12 by press time on Wednesday, extending the nearly 2% drop from the previous day. Grayscale filed an updated form to convert its Avalanche-focused Trust into an ETF with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.