Vasilis Tsaprounis
Independent Analyst
The single European currency is showing signs of stabilization trying to hold above the 1,0950 level and re-approach 1,10 again after the intense pressures it received during yesterday.
Yesterday was of great interest with intense volatility as the European common currency initially managed to approach recent peaks by hitting a high of 1,1067, but then suffered major losses, falling over 100 basis points in an environment where the negative climate in international stock markets favored the US currency which traditionally function as a safe haven currency.
Several major investment houses as well as a group of analysts are expressing significant concerns about the prospect that stock markets could move much higher when a high interest rates environment is capable of significantly curbing corporate profits as economic expansion is expected to be limited.
I will not disagreed with this reasoning as my personal assessment is that the international stock markets are indeed at relatively high prices for the present moment and the scope for further growth is quite limited.
It may take some time to digest these levels, with further correction remaining in the game with strong possibility.
Market behavior broadly confirmed the sentiment as expressed yesterday as the mildly upward momentum of the European currency combined with a sharp correction remain in game which has been mentioned repeatedly in previous articles.
Today's agenda is indifferent to European macroeconomic news and is limited only to US Durable Good orders and if these do not disappoint I would hardly see the European currency being able to continue for long the recovery mood it has displayed.
Pending the US economic outlook tomorrow, investors are likely to avoid large positions for today and I would be surprised if the European currency will make another attempt to break recent local peaks.
Τhe general picture of the market is more converging that the mildly bullish momentum of the European currency is again put in doubt.
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