Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
EUR/USD
The euro has edged higher again to restrict selling pressure, but this is a market still in consolidation. Over the past week EUR/USD has been stuck in a 60 pip range $1.0940/$1.1000. However, this has the sense of a market at an important crossroads. Given the US/China trade talks are likely to be a key driver near term, this could have an outlook defining impact. Medium term signals are at crucial levels once again. The bulls are bumping up against their medium term limiting factors. A confluence of resistance lies between $1.1000/$1.1025, with the 21 day moving average (at $1.0985), near term resistance ($1.1000), three and a half month downtrend channel (today $1.1010) and old pivot at $1.1025. The RSI is again close to 50, where the near term rallies have repeatedly failed over recent months. So a failure here would leave the market believing it was time for the downtrend channel to resume. Support at $1.0940 being breached on a closing basis would be a trigger. For the bulls, a close above $1.1025 is needed to change the outlook. For now though, consolidation continues.
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