EUR/USD Analysis: pressuring daily lows on risk-averse environment

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1457

  • EU November Industrial Production plunged in November.
  • US macroeconomic calendar with nothing to offer amid the persistent government shutdown.

The EUR/USD pair kick-started the week with a soft tone around 1.1460, unable to move far from the level amid deteriorating market's mood. Chinese trade data released overnight was a reality check, putting back on tap the high risk of a global economic downturn. Furthermore, numbers showed that the Chinese trade surplus with the US hit its highest on record in 2018, cooling down hopes for a soon end to the trade war between the two economies. Adding weigh on the common currency, the EU Industrial Production fell sharply in November, down 1.7% MoM and 3.3% YoY, more than doubling the market's forecast of a yearly decline of 1.4%.

Meanwhile, equities trade at daily lows in Europe, anticipating a soft start to the week in Wall Street. There are no macroeconomic figures scheduled in the US with the calendar light throughout the week amid US government partial shutdown. Concerns about the US situation prevent the greenback from appreciating in a risk-averse environment.

The risk remains to the downside as the EUR/USD pair was rejected from around the 23.6% retracement of the 2018 yearly decline, suggesting the early January advance was just corrective. The short-term picture is bearish, as the price remains well below a now flat 20 SMA, while technical indicators hold well into negative ground, the Momentum heading sharply lower, and the RSI with little directional strength currently at 44. The 100 SMA stands at 1.1430, with the 1.1420/30 price zone being a strong static support area. The pair would need to break below it to confirm a downward extension in the upcoming session that can extend down to 1.1360.

Support levels: 1.1425 1.1390 1.1360  

Resistance levels: 1.1480 1.1520 1.1555

View Live chart for the EUR/USD

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