EUR/USD: 1998 - 2015 and 2016 - 2023
For 2023, EUR/USD traded lower by 828 pips as the yearly dominant trend. In actuality, EUR/USD traded 828 lower to 760 pip higher. Within the year, EUR/USD traded subdominant or mini trends from 692 pips higher to 414 pips lower. Measured from range to range, EUR/USD traded a total of 2105 pips and 1588 pips as mini subdominant trends at 828 and 760.
Since 1998, EUR/USD traded less than 2105 total pips in 2019 and 2018. From 1998 to 2016 , EUR/USD traded less than 2105 pips in years 2014 at 897 pips, 2013 at 2095, 2007 at 2102, 2006 at 2040, 2005 at 1939 and 1998 at 2030. EUR/USD traded less than 2105 pips in 9 of 25 years since 1998.
EUR/USD traded its best total pips in years 2008 to 2012 from 5362, 4218, 5107, 4148 and 3307 pips.
From 2016 to 2023, EUR/USD averaged 986.87 up pips to 973.44 down and measured as 8 up months Vs 8 down months. From 2015 to 1998, EUR/USD in 15 up months averaged 1705.80 and 17 down months as 1515.41. A slight deviation to a 2 month difference in an uneven number of 7 years.
In any given year from 2016 to 2023, EUR/USD's minimum trade range is 986 to 973 pips to upside and downside pips. EUR/USD maximum at 2000 pips holds as a satisfactory estimation from years 2015 to 2023.
In rare years, EUR/USD traded straight up or directly lower. EUR/USD traded 2313 pips and straight higher in 2003, 2102 pips higher in 2007 and 1757 pips straight up in 2017. EUR/USD traded lower by 1920 pips in 2005, lower by 1879 pips in 2014 and 1322 pips in 2018. Higher EUR/USD dominated.
From 1998 to 2022, EUR/USD traded 11 up years to 13 down based on dominant pip totals. Year 2023 was excluded due to an unusual range year.To include 2023, EUR/USD traded 11 up years to 14 down as 2023 was dominant as a down trend year.
From 1998 to 2010, EUR/USD traded 7 up years to 6 years lower. From 2010 to 2022, EUR/USD traded 6 up years to 7 years lower. From 2016 to 2023, EUR/USD traded 2 years higher and 5 years lower.
Trends vs ranges
Traditional EUR/USD began trading life from 1998 - 2002 by a traded low or high within months from January to March then EUR/USD trended lower or higher throughout the year.
In 1998 for example, EUR/USD for January traded 491 pips lower then achieved 1702 pips higher by October for a total 2193 pip year. In 1999, EUR/USD for January traded 559 pips higher then 1909 pips lower by December 1999 for a 2468 pip year.
The typical up and down or down and up yearly pattern failed in 2001, 2009 and 2010, 2012 and 2013. Lows and highs for the year traded in months of March, June and July.
From 1998 to 2023, EUR/USD trended to December in 5 months, 4 months for November and 6 months for Octobet for 15 of 25 years.
From 2014 to 2023, EUR/USD began a normalization as it began in 1998 by trending to December in 3 months, 1 month in November and 4 months for October. The overall pattern held for 8 of 9 trade years.
Since 2014, highs or lows for the year traded in October, November and December.
Om the January side to highs and lows, EUR/USD dropped 16 months In January and rose 10.
The typical EUR/USD pattern from 2014 to 2023 and 1998 to 2015 / 2016 is trade a high or low in January or February then trend to October, November and December. The end months to trends is most crucial.
End months to trends in October and November will traditionally trade a 3rd leg from October and November to December. Then begins the new year. The last 3 leg pattern traded in 2021 and 2023. Total 3 leg patterns since 1998 traded in 8 years and 5 years from 2014 to 2023.
EUR/USD for 2022 was an unusual year to end year patterns as EUR/USD's low traded in September for the first time in EUR/USD's history. EUR/USD then traded 1201 pips higher by December.
By EUR/USD's low in September addresses the question if EUR/USD trades off sync to its yearly patterns or will 2024 trade again to normalcy. The speculation is EUR/USD maintains its near trade perfection.
Historically since BOE establishment in 1694 as the first central bank, markets trade in the 2nd of 4 quadrants from 2018 to 2030. Markets crash in 2nd quadrants with a near perfect record except for the 1920's and slight deviation in WW 1 years.
Year 2023 enters the 51st year of the 1972 currency free float. Viewed from the 2nd Quadrant or 51st trade year, markets trade in a dangerous period.
Author
Brian Twomey
Brian's Investment
Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.
