EUR/GBP outlook: Bears take a breather after two-week descend, overall picture remains negative

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

EURGBP bounced from new multi-month low (the lowest since 5 June 2025) on Tuesday, as US dollar and crude oil eased, while German inflation rose further in September, contributing to supportive factors.

Profit taking after steep and uninterrupted fall in past two weeks, was also behind today’s move, as well as oversold daily RSI and stretched 14-d momentum (at the lowest since early May 2025).

Oversold conditions should provide significant support to recovery, but firmly bearish daily studies warn that correction is likely to be limited.

The notion is supported by the latest fiscal turbulence in France which seems to be just a top of the iceberg, as many other bloc members face similar problems and very painful measures required to ease pressure.

This contributes to fragile economic conditions, crisis with energy and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, with all negative consequences to the EU that is expected to keep the Euro under pressure.

Recent break of Fibo support at 0.8467 (61.8% retracement of 0.8222/0.8865 advance opens way towards targets at 0.8373 (Fibo 76.4%) and 0.8355 (29 May 2025 low).

Falling 10DMA (0.8480) offers solid resistance, ahead of 0.8530 (20DMA / Aug 17 low).

Res: 0.8467; 0.8480; 0.8530; 0.8543

Sup: 0.8428; 0.8373; 0.8355; 0.8300

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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