ES back in the range – For now

S&P 500 tumbled right through my 4,154 support, reaching all the way to another key milestone of 4,115. Heavy selling across the board, and my key metrics of XLF, XRT, XLI, XLB and IWM stumbled sufficiently just as tech did.

I‘m though looking for tech to not continue easily lower here, HYG and VIX indicate. The former by printing a lower knot before S&P 500 woke up, the latter by VIX being unable to hold 20.50.

Respite in selling is ahead, and ES taking on 4,165 is quite likely in order to close the preceding gap, even without being powered by debt ceiling resolution. The Fitch warning isn‘t enough at the moment, and a deal at the very last minute remains most likely, as the costs of not reaching it are prohibitively high.

So, today would be about unemployment claims allowing the Fed to remain hawkish – remember the big picture beyond tightening – and NVDA earnings aftermath – no matter how poor compared to a year ago, the markets chose to salivate over exuberant forward guidance while AI is going to make more money to others such as AAPL and MSFT, and would take longer to become reality.

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Let‘s move right into the charts – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq outlook

If 4,154 resistance doesn‘t hold, 4,165 comes next, and that would hold without 4,177 jeopardized. It‘s too early though for the bears to reassume initiative even if my late in the day call to close ideally below 4,136, materialized. The bears need to regroup here, and get ready for tomorrow‘s core PCE surprise of inflation remaining quite sticky actually.

On one hand, 4,115 followed by 4,078 has to wait still – on the other hand, overcoming 4,225 seems unlikely at the moment, and would signify invalidation of the range breakout. Too early to call beyond today, but the steepness of this correction points to trouble overcoming 4,177 let alone 4,188.