Equities flicker, then fade—the fiscal fire’s still smouldering

“The Rubicon has been crossed, but the tide pulled back—at least for now.”

Thursday had all the makings of a bond market bloodbath. Yields were supposed to unshackle and sprint higher after President Trump’s sprawling, deficit-detonating “Big, Beautiful” bill squeaked through the House by a single vote—215 to 214. With the CBO pencilling in a $500 billion-a-year black hole for the next four years, and up to $5 trillion over a decade, traders braced for a buyer’s strike. Instead? We got the ghost bid.

After flirting with chaos and gapping toward a disorderly repricing in rates, the 30-year yield—having boldly charged through the 5% Rubicon earlier in the week and to 5.15 % intraday, did the unthinkable: it retreated. It was as if a shadow whale surfaced beneath the Treasury tape, quietly absorbing supply when bond vigilantes were meant to feast. So, the Rubicon has been crossed, but the tide pulled back—at least for now.

That kneejerk-to-the-kneejerk move sparked a mechanical rebound in equities—the S&P 500 reversed off session lows, rode a melt-up wave, then caved into the close as U.S. fiscal worries continued to cast a long shadow over the markets. A choppy, range-bound session, but with enough intraday adrenaline to keep speculative desks honest.

Risk assets, in general, found themselves tiptoeing across a high wire stretched over a canyon of fiscal uncertainty. Oil flailed early before regaining composure—Brent remains stuck in a two-week range, caught between SPR replenishment signals and sluggish global demand cues. Gold, however, delivered the real whiplash: a China futures open breakout to $3,350 fizzled into a sharp $60 reversal. The precious metal once again proved it’s not immune to the hangover that follows a bout of long-covering euphoria.

Bitcoin, in contrast, is in its own solar system—punching through $112,000 in a vertical move that feels more parabolic than plausible. Whether it's capital flight, sovereign hedging, or FOMO on steroids, crypto continues to trade like it’s the only asset class not tied to a fiscal anchor.

A modest global PMI bounce supported the calm veneer across markets. The U.S. activity gauges came in strong, suggesting that corporate America’s pulse is quickening, even as prices paid metrics quietly signal caution on inflation. Traders chose to embrace growth and ignore costs—classic late-cycle behaviour.

Asia now enters the fray with a fresh round of inflation tea leaves. Japan’s core CPI is expected to print its hottest number in two years. Add that to a disastrous 20-year JGB auction—the weakest since 2012—and surging 30- and 40-year yields, and you’ve got the BOJ standing at the mouth of a volcano, praying it doesn’t blow. Intervention is not the base case, but yield spikes like these could force their hand. If JGBs keep leaking, the yen will become the pressure valve—watch for whipsaw moves around Tokyo’s CPI print.

The term premium is back from the dead, fiscal anchors are fraying, and the only constant is volatility. Markets aren’t debating the arrival of a new regime anymore—they’re scrambling to survive its opening act. And beneath it all, a market starved for a policy circuit breaker is beginning to look dangerously overexposed.

Trump just fired off the uranium cannon

This isn’t a policy tweak. It’s a full-blown capital war declaration—and uranium just got drafted. Trump’s move to invoke the Defense Production Act to secure uranium supply chains is the macro equivalent of slamming a ‘nationalize’ bid under the entire U.S. nuclear complex. Forget OPEC—this is about shielding America’s energy backbone from geopolitical choke points and rewriting the rules of global commodity rotation.

Let’s cut through the noise: uranium just shifted from an underweight boutique play to a frontline strategic asset. This isn’t about ESG or energy diversification anymore—it’s about war-prep hedging. And the Street’s still pricing it like it's 2015.

The reflexivity loop has kicked in. Higher prices will beget headlines, headlines attract capital, capital invites policy, and policy torches shorts. This isn’t some GameStop sideshow—this is real-world policy reflexivity tied to U.S. sovereign risk premiums. Small Modular Reactor plays, uranium refiners, miners with U.S. exposure—they're all riding the same asymmetric gamma wave now.

But the real alpha? It’s geopolitical. Washington just signaled that Russian control over uranium refining is a national security risk. That reframes the entire uranium ecosystem under the “America First Energy Doctrine – Phase II” banner. Think long-term federal contracts. Think federal subsidies. Think guaranteed demand flow. That’s not a trade, that’s structural revaluation.

Uranium isn’t a contrarian bet anymore—it’s a liquidity black hole in the making. The floats are razor-thin, the narrative is policy-backed, and the optionality is explosive. If you’re not long uranium, you’re basically short U.S. energy sovereignty.

This was the opening cannon shot in a much bigger energy war. The only question now is: how many asset managers are still asleep at the switch?