Regional Overview

Macro, FX & Rates: Czech wages growth accelerates

(PL) Standard & Poor's affirmed Poland's BBB+ rating and moved the outlook from negative to stable, the agency said in a statement late Friday. Mark Poland 'BBB+/A-2' foreign currency and 'A-/A-2' local currency. / SLGHT POSITIVE; S&P said its initial concerns that central bank's independence could be undermined did not materialize and although it revised its expectations for economic growth to the downside it decided to raise rating outlook. This should be positive news for both polish government bonds and the zloty.

(CZ) Average real monthly wage growth accelerated to 4.0% Y/Y in the third quarter of 2016, in line with our expectations. In nominal terms, wages grew by 4.5% Y/Y. / POSITIVE; Even more important is that median wage growth again exceeded average which means that employees with lower income also participate on economic growth. This is good news from the perspective of the central bank; the figure is higher than anticipated by the last projection and it also means that (demand) inflation pressures should also be stronger. We expect wages growth to accelerate further and in 2017 it could exceed 5% (in nominal terms).

Equities: Enea was given exclusive negotiation rights over a 100% stake in EEP

(PL) UTILS/ENA: Enea was given exclusive negotiation rights over a 100% stake in Engie Energia Polska, a Polish unit of the French utility, valid until the end of 2016, Enea said in a market filing. Separately, French EDF said it won't consider Polish utilities bid for local assets and agreed deal terms with Czech EPH and Australian EFM in Polish assets sale; / NEUTRAL; Note, Enea filed a bid for Engie Energia Polska on SEP-30, citing the need to "strengthen its position on the generation market," in line with the new development strategy. Engie Energia Polska owns a 1.445 GW power plant in Polaniec; Note, Four Polish utilities submit new bid for EDF's sssets in Poland. Energa said DEC-01 in regulatory filing that it, PGE, Enea and PGNiG's Termika unit submitted new bid "to purchase shares in EDF companies in Poland holding conventional generation assets and carrying out service activities;" /

(PL) ENA: Poland would like to merge mines of its ailing coal miner KHW with mining group PGG in January and power group Enea, which was to inject capital into KHW, will capitalize PGG with the same amount, deputy Energy Minister Tobiszowski told PAP; / TO WATCH; Note, state-controlled WSE-listed power utilities PGE and Energa as well as the power unit of gas firm PGNiG put in PLN 500mn each in rescue capital in the coal group PGG, crafted out of select assets of the defunct Kompania Weglowa in May 2016... and Enea is to inject PLN 350mn in KHW; /

  LAST PREVIOUS CHANGE (%)
EURCZK 27.04 27.05 -0.05
EURHUF 313.5 313.3 0.07
EURPLN 4.493 4.485 0.17

 

  LAST PREVIOUS CHANGE (bps)
CZGB 10Y 0.509 0.511 -0.2
HUGB 10Y #N/A #N/A #N/A
PLGB 10Y #N/A #N/A #N/A

 

  LAST PREVIOUS CHANGE (%)
PX 887.2 887.2 0
BUX 29808 29808 0
WIG 48474 48474 0

 
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This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.

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