Elliott Wave structure, key levels, and strategic outlook for EUR/USD, SPX500, WTI [Video]

The beginning of 2026 is unfolding in a highly sensitive macroeconomic environment, marked by recurring volatility and meaningful directional moves across major financial markets. In this context, advanced technical analysis—particularly Elliott Wave theory—combined with disciplined risk management, becomes essential for market participants seeking consistency and capital preservation.

This report provides a structured outlook on the U.S. dollar, the euro, the S&P 500, and crude oil, integrating macroeconomic drivers, liquidity zones, and technically grounded scenarios for the week ahead.

Why inflation data matters this week

Market attention is firmly focused on upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases. These data points play a direct role in shaping expectations around monetary policy and, by extension, interest rates and the U.S. dollar.

As speculation grows around potential rate cuts, markets face a critical question: will inflation data confirm a sustained slowdown, signaling a structural shift in the cost of capital? Historically, markets tend to anticipate such transitions well before they are formally announced, often resulting in sharp and non-linear price movements.

The US Dollar and the cost of capital

Current market conditions reflect a tension between elevated borrowing costs and expectations of a more accommodative monetary stance in the medium term. Traditionally, higher interest rates support a stronger dollar; however, markets rarely wait for policy changes to become official.

From a strategic perspective, the key is not reacting to individual data points but evaluating whether the broader macro narrative points toward a turning point. This assessment is particularly relevant for major currency pairs, where early positioning can offer favorable risk-to-reward opportunities.

Euro strategy: Technical structure and risk control

From a technical standpoint, the euro has begun to show consistent signs of bearish exhaustion across relevant timeframes. Price action suggests the development of a corrective phase within an Elliott Wave structure, opening the door to gradual bullish scenarios.

That said, directional bias alone is insufficient. Effective execution depends on precise risk management: staggered entries, clearly defined stop levels, and continuous alignment with the macro backdrop. In professional trading, preserving capital during adverse moves is just as important as maximizing gains when scenarios unfold as expected.

A core principle applies here: long-term profitability is achieved not by winning every trade, but by keeping losses small when the market fails to confirm the analysis.

S&P 500: Liquidity zones and market structure

The S&P 500 remains within a dominant bullish trend, yet it is currently trading near a significant liquidity zone. Such areas often act as price magnets and, at the same time, as regions where temporary pullbacks can occur before trend continuation.

The primary scenario suggests the potential for an additional short-term retracement, followed by renewed upside attempts toward new annual highs. In this environment, patience and technical confirmation are critical, particularly to avoid premature entries during periods of institutional repositioning.

Futures trading: Swing and intraday positioning

In futures markets, the current approach remains asset-specific. Equity index strategies continue to favor buying pullbacks within the prevailing trend. Crude oil, however, presents a different dynamic.

From a macro perspective, there is a clear incentive to keep energy prices contained as part of broader efforts to manage inflationary pressures. Technically, this reinforces a framework focused on selling into rallies, prioritizing rejection signals and confirmed weakness before entering short positions.

Risk management and capital allocation

Beyond technical analysis, the defining factor between inconsistent results and sustained performance is disciplined risk management. A lack of structured risk rules remains one of the most common causes of deteriorating equity curves, even among traders with sound market reads.

Strict stop usage, predefined risk-to-reward ratios, and comprehensive trade journaling are essential practices. These tools allow for objective performance evaluation and timely adjustments before minor drawdowns escalate into structural issues.

Weekly operational checklist

Before the trading week begins, it is critical to ensure alignment between strategy and market conditions. This includes reviewing key economic releases, validating liquidity zones across multiple timeframes, and defining alternative scenarios should the primary outlook fail to materialize.

The 2026 market landscape presents both challenges and opportunities. Volatility itself is not the enemy; rather, it demands preparation, technical precision, and emotional discipline. A well-executed Elliott Wave framework, supported by rigorous risk management, provides a clear edge in navigating complex market conditions.

In professional trading, consistency is not driven by intuition, but by method.