Economic sentiment in CEE improves in the third quarter

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

Retail sales in Slovenia increased by 0.7% y/y in August.
Today at 8.30 AM CET Hungary releases producer prices in August.
At 10 AM CET Poland will publish September’s flash inflation while Slovenia’s release is at 10.30 AM CET.
Retail sales and industrial output growth in August is due 11 AM CET in Croatia and due noon CET in Serbia.
On the top of that, Serbia will release trade data.

Economic developments

Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) improved in the third quarter compared to the second one as the average for CEE8 increased from 97 to 97.4. It is quite clear, however, that the bottom was reached in July (CEE8 average at 95.5) and since then we have seen visible improvement (CEE8 average at 98.6 in September). Looking across the countries market sentiment improved the most in Czechia, Hungary, Slovenia and in Serbia over last couple of months supporting higher CEE8 average. In Czechia, Hungary and in Slovenia, the ESI reached the highest value since the beginning of the year. Increasing economic sentiment is in line with our baseline scenario that certainty regarding tariffs should help economic activity in the second half of the year and beyond 2025. Consumer confidence indicator has also edged up in the region driven by strengthening confidence in Hungary mostly.

Market movements

The FX and bond markets were stable at the beginning of the week. Romania sold RON 574.5 million of government papers maturing in 2032. The demand was solid. Poland’s Ministry of Finance has financed 100% of 2025 borrowing needs and began prefinancing of 2026. There is no other major news regarding market performance. September’s flash inflation release will be in the center of attention today in the region.

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Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

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