ECB to leave rates unchanged as Eurozone set to enjoy strong 2026

Matthew Ryan, CFA Ebury

The ECB will no doubt leave rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday. We don’t think that President Lagarde will stray too far from her October messaging, reiterating that policy is in a “good place”. Attention will be on the updated economic outlook, with Lagarde strongly hinting at an upward revision to the growth forecasts.

Economic activity data suggests that the Euro Area economy has turned the corner, with 2026 poised to be a year of economic recovery and contained inflation. We now think that the next move in ECB rates will be higher, rather than lower, but we could be waiting a while. It also appears far too early for the divided Governing Council to drop any direct hints about future hikes, although the updated projections and rhetoric on the economic outlook will be viewed through this lens.

An upbeat tone on growth may provide some support for the euro on Thursday. Yet, given market expectations and the extent of the recent euro rally, we think that any gains will be contained. A more toned-down message may, conversely, result in some profit-taking.

Author

Matthew Ryan, CFA

Ebury

Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 on fresh USD supply

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar retreats from 17-month highs as traders take profits off the table ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar draws support from reviving expectations of a November interest rate hike amid elevated global yields and inflation risks.

USD/JPY struggles near 158.00 as USD retreats ahead of NFP

USD/JPY is struggling for fresh impetus near 158.00, moving away from the top end of its weekly range in the Asian session on Friday, after hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI and amid a broad US Dollar retreat. Traders reposition themselves ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Gold remains capped below $4,200 as traders await US NFP for Fed rate cuts

Gold extends its sideways move on Friday, trading below the $4,200 mark heading into the European session as traders await the release of US employment details. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to show that the economy added only 90K jobs in September, down from the previous month's reading of 162K.

Pi Network retreats to key support level as selling pressure resurfaces

Pi Network price remains volatile in the near term, hovering around $0.0900 at press time on Friday after losing over 3% the previous day. The pullback warns of a steeper correction, with a risk of breaking below a rising wedge pattern on the four-hour chart. Pi Network struggles to maintain a steady recovery as the price remains capped below the $0.1000 psychological barrier.

US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to soften in September

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Investors expect NFP to rise by 90K in September following August’s impressive 162K increase. The Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.1%, while the monthly wage inflation, as measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, is projected to hold steady at 0.3%.

Markets are pricing a Fed pause. The jobs data says the hike is still coming

The market has rapidly changed its mind about the Federal Reserve (Fed). Only a week ago, investors saw an October interest-rate hike as the most likely outcome. However, softer inflation and cautious comments from policymakers have since turned a pause into the dominant scenario. Yet beneath that dramatic repricing, the US economy is sending a considerably less dovish message.