ECB Quick Analysis: Winning the currency war without firing a shot – EUR/USD may crash


  • The ECB left its policy unchanged but opened the door to act in September.
  • The euro has fallen on prospects of action.
  • Draghi has prepared EUR/USD to extend its falls on the Fed decision.

Mario Draghi is Super Mario once again. The European Central Bank has left its interest rate unchanged but still sent the euro down. The Frankfurt-based institution has opened the door to rate cuts, tiering of the deposit rate and most importantly – a new round of Quantitative Easing – or money printing to devalue the euro.

EUR/USD initially rose on the "no cut" news but quickly dropped. Investors have realized President Mario Draghi's open door to act. 

And it may go further down.

Draghi has kept his powder dry but made the euro more vulnerable ahead of the US Federal Reserve's decision next week. The Fed is set to cut interest rates for the first time since the crisis – and this is already priced into the dollar. The reaction to the Fed depends on the message that it conveys – a one and done rate cut or the beginning of a loosening cycle. 

The shrewd ECB President has left the notion that the ECB is ready to take significant steps and left the details to September. If the Fed hints of a single "insurance" cut, EUR/USD has room to fall on the stark difference between the policies. 

And even if the US central bank indicates a long loosening cycle, it will only have matched the ECB ~ which may then add further stimulus to outdo the Fed if needed.

It seems like a win-win situation for the ECB and a lose-lose for EUR/USD. The Frankfurt-based institution would like a weaker exchange rate in order to boost exports and drive inflation higher.

Draghi – which ends his tenure in November – has proved his mastery. Get ready for more EUR/USD downfalls.

Follow all the ECB updates live

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD accelerates decline and nears 1.1200

The US Nonfarm Payroll report’s effects are long gone. The greenback gets attention as stocks eased sharply from intraday highs, still holding in the green, yet undermined by record coronavirus cases in the US.

EUR/USD News

AUD/USD hovering around 0.6920 after a dull day

AUD/USD pair seesawed between gains and losses, settling for a second consecutive day at around 0.6920. Australian PMIs and Chinese services output coming up next.

AUD/USD News

Gold: Bears seeking justice below key support

XAU/USD has been a mixed bag this week and for the start of the month, trapping bears ina recent stop hunt from the $1,757.66 level where it met a high of $1,779.69 on the last session before the US long weekend. 

Gold News

Crypto collapse with Bitcoin falling below $9,000 and Ethereum getting close to $220

Most cryptocurrencies are experiencing a significant sell-off after Bitcoin fell below $9,000. BNB/USD has suffered the most with a 4% drop towards $15 and needs to hold $14.8 support. 

Read more

Oil: $40 per barrel has been broken again but there is a lack of conviction at these current levels

WTI has continued to move higher on Thursday but the price action seems pretty lacklustre despite volatility elsewhere. There have been some decent news stories in the past few sessions as it was confirmed OPEC output reached a two-decade low after over compliance from Saudi Arabia. 

Oil News

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures