DXY price outlook: US Dollar Index tests 1.236 arc – Awaiting directional confirmation

Mohamad Gharib Independent Analyst

DXY: Arc cycle analysis™

Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 4h chart, U.S. Dollar Index is interacting with the 1.236 Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Price remains centered around this Arc, indicating that directional confirmation has not yet been established.

Market outlook

Price remains centered around the 1.236 Arc, indicating that the market has not yet established a directional bias within the current Arc Cycle. The preferred approach is to await confirmation before anticipating the next significant move.

Author

Mohamad Gharib

Independent Analyst

Mohamad Gharib is a Financial Markets Analyst and Quantitative Researcher with more than 18 years of experience in financial markets, including 15 years as an FX Quant Trader.

AUD/USD keeps the red near 0.6950 after weak Aussie jobs data

AUD/USD holds losses near 0.6950 on disappointing Australian jobs data, extending the previous day's retracement slide from the monthly high and hitting a fresh weekly low during Thursday’s Asian session. Meanwhile, declining US bond yields drag the US Dollar away from the April 2025 high, touched after Wednesday's hot US CPI, helping limit losses for the currency pair.

USD/JPY slides back below 158.00 as USD reverses post-CPI gains

USD/JPY extends the previous day's pullback from a three-week high, attracting follow-through selling and sliding below 158.00 during Thursday's Asian session. Traders remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. The US Dollar, meanwhile, reverses Wednesday's hot CPI-led gains to April 2025 highs as US bond yields retreat on China bond-buying talk, further pressuring the pair.

Gold sticks to gains below $4,150 on weak USD; bulls seem hesitant amid Fed hike bets

Gold clings to modest intraday gains through the early European session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar, snapping a three-day losing streak to a one-week low set on Wednesday. The initial aggressive market reaction to hot US consumer inflation figures faded quickly amid expectations that the Fed may not rush to raise interest rates immediately. This led to a further decline in US bond yields, prompting some follow-through USD profit-taking and supporting the non-yielding bullion.

Zcash declines as US inflation surprise offsets fresh ETF inflows

Zcash (ZEC) is trading in the red on Friday, extending its previous day’s roughly 6% losses as the broader cryptocurrency market falls on rising US inflation. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print came in higher than expected, at an annual increase of 3.7% versus the expected 3.6%, raising concerns about inflation and rate hikes.

US Sept Retail Sales and PPI in focus along with corporate earnings

Asia market update: Bond traders ignore US CPI and focus on equity weakness and AI-credit concerns ahead of TSMC earnings; Kospi circuit breaker triggered for the first time since Jul; CHF and JPY rise on safe-haven demand; US Sept Retail Sales & PPI in focus along with corporate earnings. - Chinese shipping firms collapse amid capacity concerns.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?