DXY price forecast: US Dollar Index faces rejection at 0.618 sarc

Mohamad Gharib Independent Analyst

US Dollar Index (DXY): Arc cycle analysis

Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 1h chart, the US Dollar Index is interacting with the 0.618 Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Bullish momentum has faded near this boundary, indicating that the upper Arc continues to cap upside expansion.

Metric	Reading
Market Bias	Neutral-Bearish
Preferred Scenario	Two-Way Navigation Within the Current Arc Range
Target Arc	0.5 Arc
Potential Interim Move	An interim retest of the upper 0.618 Arc may occur at 99.34 before broader directional continuation.
Current Arc Level	In Transit Between Arcs (0.618 Arc to 0.5 Arc)
Cycle Status	Mid-Cycle Migration Phase

Market outlook

The 0.618 Arc continues to act as a resistance boundary, capping upside expansion. Bullish attempts have stalled beneath the Resistance Arc, indicating that the resistance remains intact.

If the Resistance Arc holds firm, a decline toward the 0.5 Target Arc becomes the primary scenario. Conversely, a sustained 1h close above the Arc would invalidate the bearish scenario, opening the path toward the next upper Resistance Arc 0.618.

Author

Mohamad Gharib

Independent Analyst

Mohamad Gharib is a Financial Markets Analyst and Quantitative Researcher with more than 18 years of experience in financial markets, including 15 years as an FX Quant Trader.

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