Dollar Index in view ahead of data

Aaron Hill FP Markets

Ahead of this week’s US GDP first estimate print and the PCE Price Index numbers, the US Dollar Index will likely be a watched market.

Buyers remain firmly at the wheel. YTD, we are nearly +5.0%, with April on track to close higher for a fourth consecutive month, up +1.5% MTD. And from a technical standpoint, further outperformance is on the table.

October 2023 peak within reach

Based on price action from the monthly timeframe, the unit is on track to register its fourth consecutive month in the green and is within a stone’s throw of touching gloves with the 107.35 October 2023 peak. Beyond here, the scales tip towards a 100% projection ratio at 108.48 (equal AB=CD resistance) and resistance from 109.33. Reinforcing the possibility of bulls remaining in command this month is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounding from the 50.00 centreline support, indicating positive momentum.

Retesting support

On the daily timeframe, last week observed price movement refresh YTD highs at 106.52 and pencil in a correction in the second half of the week to retest support at 105.76. Overhead, a small, albeit potentially effective, area of resistance resides between 106.89 and 106.79, with a break exposing the October 2023 pinnacles highlighted above and a layer of daily resistance at 107.61.

Consequent to the above, the daily support base from 105.76 could be area buyers enter this week to refresh YTD peaks and perhaps take aim at daily resistance from 106.89-106.79. Of course, the caveat to upside this week is the daily RSI departing from overbought territory.

Author

Aaron Hill

FP Markets

After completing his Bachelor’s degree in English and Creative Writing in the UK, and subsequently spending a handful of years teaching English as a foreign language teacher around Asia, Aaron was introduced to financial trading,

EUR/USD extends its optimism past 1.1900

EUR/USD retains a firm underlying bid, surpassing the 1.1900 mark as the NA session draws to a close on Monday. The pair’s persistent uptrend comes as the US Dollar remains on the defensive, with traders staying cautious ahead of upcoming US NFP prints and CPI data.

GBP/USD hits three-day peaks, targets 1.3700

GBP/USD is clocking decent gains at the start of the week, advancing to three-day highs near 1.3670 and building on Friday’s solid performance. The better tone in the British Pound comes on the back of the intense sekk-off in the Greenback and despite re-emerging signs of a fresh government crisis in the UK.

Gold picks up pace, retargets $5,100

Gold gathers fresh steam, challenging daily highs en route to the $5,100 mark per troy ounce in the latter part of Monday’s session. The precious metal finds support from fresh signs of continued buying by the PBoC, while expectations that the Fed could lean more dovish also collaborate with the uptick.

XRP struggles around $1.40 despite institutional inflows

Ripple (XRP) is extending its intraday decline to around $1.40 at the time of writing on Monday amid growing pressure from the retail market and risk-off sentiment that continues to keep investors on the sidelines.

Japanese PM Takaichi nabs unprecedented victory – US data eyed this week

I do not think I would be exaggerating to say that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s snap general election gamble paid off over the weekend – and then some. This secured the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) an unprecedented mandate just three months into her tenure.