Dialing back fears

S&P 500 refused a panicky decline into Powell‘s speech, and swiftly recovered on no fresh hawkish clues. Market breadth improved, and the sellers weren‘t falling over themselves. 3,910 held, and there were no tests of the bottom border of the support zone at 3,895. While real assets didn‘t spurt to the upside yesterday, they‘re likely to catch up today and tomorrow.

Tomorrow, because after initial turbulence over CPI (and especially core CPI!) not declining as fast as the market (and the central bank!) wishes with regard to Fed pivot dreams, I think the positive market reaction to a still reasonably fast declining inflation figure, would prevail (6.6 – 6.7% is enough) – and that we would continue on the march to making a Jan top. Remaining nimble is the name of the game!

As for today, 3,955 is the name of the game.

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Let‘s move right into the charts.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq outlook

Let‘s go – or better said – try to go higher, provided that outside markets and stock internals support that. We can make it above 3,955 to gradually approach 3,980 as the next objective, but it won‘t be a disaster if 3,955 holds on a closing basis.

Credit markets

Bonds aren‘t throwing in the towel, and especially the TLT decline is inordinate. TLT and TLH would just dial that back during today.