December spending momentum slows after Black Friday surge

Danske Research Team Danske Bank A/S

Adjusting for seasonality and prices, spending excluding energy decreased 0.8% in December compared to November, driven by lower retail and services consumption. Real spending began the year on a downward trend but picked up during the summer, with recent momentum giving a total growth of 1.9% from 2024 to 2025.

Real retail spending fell 0.6% from November to December, reflecting lower consumption across most goods categories, with only sporting goods recording slight growth in real terms. Overall, nominal spending fell by 0.9% m/m, more than real spending, with part of the real decline offset by falling prices. However, higher Black Friday spending in November may have offset some goods expenditure in December, as a lot of holiday shopping was moved forward. When including Black Week as part of the Christmas period, nominal Christmas spending - i.e. retail sales excluding groceries, 1.9% higher in 2025 compared to 2024.

Real service spending decreased slightly across most categories in December. Travel-related services, such as tourist attractions, amusement parks and airlines, experienced the sharpest declines. However, several service categories countered this trend, with real spending on hotels and motels rising by an impressive 7.8% m/m. Spending in theatres and concerts also increased significantly, though this sector remains historically volatile.

Going into 2026, we expect households to increasingly translating real wage growth into higher consumption, as they get a significant additional boost from lower taxes and duties.

Download The Full Spending Monitor

Author

Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S

Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.

EUR/USD stays pressured toward 1.1650 ahead of key US CPI data

EUR/USD stays in the red near 1.1650 in the European session on Tuesday, reversing the previous rebound. The pair is weighed down by the US Dollar's recovery, but further downside appears capped as traders turn cautious ahead of the US CPI inflation data, due later in the day at 13:30 GMT.

GBP/USD hovers above 1.3450 as traders await US CPI report

GBP/USD keeps its range above 1.3450 in European trading on Tuesday, struggling to build on the previous day's recovery from the 1.3390 region. Traders now await the US CPI data release for fresh direction on the US Dollar, which will significantly impact the pair's performance ahead.

Gold trades with modest losses amid firmer USD; focus remains on US CPI report

Gold sticks to intraday losses through the early part of the European session, though the downside remains cushioned amid a supportive fundamental backdrop. The US Dollar gains some positive traction following the previous day's decline and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the commodity.

CPI Data expected to show stable inflation in December with limited implications for Fed policy

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish December’s Consumer Price Index report on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT. The report is expected to show that prices remained broadly stable in the last month of 2025. It’s a key read on inflation and could stir some short-term moves in the US Dollar.

More pressure on the Federal Reserve emerges

News broke on Sunday night that the Federal Reserve received grand jury subpoenas from the Department of Justice on Friday, escalating the Trump administration's pressure on the nation's central bank.

Meme Coins Price Prediction: DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE bulls struggle to regain strength

Meme coins, including Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe remain under extreme selling pressure, recording roughly seven days of downtrend following the January 4 spike. The meme coins risk a bearish shift in momentum as buying pressure subsides, potentially leading to further declines.