EUR/USD - 1.1319

Despite euro's brief but sharp selloff from 1.1382 to 1.1236 on Tuesday, subsequent rally to 1.1360 yesterday suggests further choppy trading above Nov's 16-month trough at 1.1187 would continue, however, as long as said Tuesday's high holds, consolidation with downside bias remains, a daily close below 1.1303 would head back towards 1.1236.

On the upside, only a daily above 1.1382 risks stronger retracement of recent downtrend but reckon res at 1.1434 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Thursday:

Australia trade balance, imports, exports, Japan consumer confidence.
Swiss retail sales, Italy unemployment rate, EU producer prices, unemployment rate.
U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims.

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