Cycle Trading: Daily cycle low

LikesMoney Independent Analyst

Stocks formed a swing low on Monday off of support from the 50 day MA.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 61. That places them late in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Therefore Monday’s swing low has good odds of marking the DCL.

Notice the bullish RSI divergence. If this was the start of an intermediate cycle decline, then RSI would start to embed in oversold. The bullish RSI divergence signals a continuation of the intermediate cycle advance. That aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. The swing low formed above the lower daily cycle band to indicate that stocks will remain in their daily uptrend. If stocks deliver bullish follow through and closed above the 10 day MA that will trigger a cycle band buy signal.

And if stocks deliver bullish follow and close back above the 10 day MA then that will indicate that the breakout continues to advance.

Author

LikesMoney

Independent Analyst

Assets (such as stocks, gold, and the dollar) have identifiable cycles.

GBP/USD bounces off lows, back above 1.3200

After bottoming out near 1.3160, GBP/USD manages to regain a bit of shine and reclaim the 1.3200 mark and beyond at the end of the week. Stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data seem to be helping the British Pound limit its losses, while the chaotic UK political environment keeps the bulls at bay for now.

EUR/USD looks consolidative around 1.1460

EUR/USD stages a modest rebound after slipping to a three-month low below 1.1420 at the end of the week. That said, the pair now looks to consolidate humble gains just above 1.1460 despite growing uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations, which keeps the US Dollar’s downside contained.

Gold slips back to six-day lows, targets $4,100

Gold retreats for the third consecutive day on Friday, eroding gains seen in the first half of the week and approaching the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce. Indeed, the precious metal continues to face headwinds from the Fed's hawkish stance and renewed uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations.

Breaking: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire deal violation

Iran says it is closing the Strait of Hormuz after accusing the United States (US) and Israel of violating the ceasefire. According to Iran, the decision came over the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a warning to all vessels: "Do not approach the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, your security will be jeopardized."

The Iran war didn't break the US economy, but what happens next?

Nearly four months after the start of the Iran war, the US economy remains remarkably resilient. While the conflict initially triggered a severe disruption to global energy markets and a sharp rise in Oil prices, recent diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran has eased concerns about a prolonged supply shock.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.