Crude oil is afraid of geopolitics

The commodity sector remains rather tense on Monday; Brent is trading at $102.75.

Global geopolitics is what investors are focused on right now. Any complications in this area muddy the water one way or another, and it’s bad news. Last weekend, the Kosovo situation escalated – a gas pipeline “Balkan Stream” is going through Serbia, which doesn’t recognise the independence of Kosovo. The pipeline delivers natural gas from “TurkStream” to Hungary.

Later this week, OPEC and OPECF+ will have meetings. The OPEC+ agreement is ending in August and the organisations are set to discuss options to increase oil production. First of all, it depends on Saudi Arabia, a country that still has the potential for oil extraction expansion. However, Saudis don’t seem to be interested in it.

The latest report from Baker Hughes showed that over the past week, the Oil Rig Count in the US gained 6 units, up to 605. In Canada, the indicator increased by 13 units, up to 137.

On the H4 chart, Brent is forming the third ascending wave with the target at 111.55 and may later correct down to 106.16. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the short-term target at 118.80. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 0 inside the histogram area. Both the line and the price chart may yet continue to move upwards.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after finishing the descending correctional structure at 106.16, Brent is consolidating above this level. Possibly, the asset may break the range to the upside and start another growth with the target at 111.55, or even extends this structure up to 118.70. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: after breaking 20, its signal line is heading towards 50. Later, the line may break the latter level and continue growing to reach 80.