COT Report - August 21, 2026

Mohamad Gharib Independent Analyst

Key COT extremes and narrative takeaways

Highlights the six highest and two lowest Commercial COT Index readings, with Large Speculator positioning, weekly positioning changes, and price performance providing context for each extreme

Australian Dollar — 98%: Commercial positioning is near the upper end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net short at −44,159 contracts, with speculative net positioning shifting lower by 4,936 contracts. Price increased 1.22%.

Natural Gas — 96%: Commercial positioning is near the upper end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net short at −203,503 contracts, with speculative net positioning shifting lower by 6,368 contracts. Price increased 3.06%.

Euro FX — 89%: Commercial positioning is near the upper end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net short at −59,088 contracts, while speculative net positioning improved by 922 contracts. Price increased 0.92%.

Canadian Dollar — 88%: Commercial positioning is near the upper end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net short at −158,166 contracts, while speculative net positioning improved by 15,196 contracts. Price increased 0.74%.

Platinum — 85%: Commercial positioning is near the upper end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net long at +13,039 contracts, while speculative net positioning shifted lower by 501 contracts. Price increased 7.66%.

Palladium — 83%: Commercial positioning is near the upper end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net short at −4,398 contracts, with speculative net positioning shifting lower by 482 contracts. Price increased 2.81%.

Gold — 0%: Commercial positioning is at the lower end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net long at +222,189 contracts, with speculative net positioning increasing by 4,249 contracts. Price increased 5.18%.

Silver — 0%: Commercial positioning is at the lower end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net long at +23,625 contracts, with speculative net positioning broadly unchanged at −21 contracts. Price increased 6.46%.

ASSET	PRICE CHG	SPEC. NET	SPEC. NET CHG	COMM. NET	COMM. NET CHG	SMALL NET	OPEN INTEREST	OI CHG	COT INDEX	POSITIONING
Dollar Index	-0.79%	+19,079	-2,330	-20,676	+2,752	+1,597	47,928	-3%	13%	Bullish (Net Long) – Weakening
Euro FX	+0.92%	-59,088	+922	+24,055	-5,148	+35,033	804,940	0%	89%	Bearish (Net Short) – Improving
Swiss Franc	+1.44%	-27,278	+5,184	+38,974	-5,439	-11,696	113,749	+4%	35%	Bearish (Net Short) – Improving
British Pound	+0.83%	-54,573	+1,648	+50,353	-8,534	+4,220	286,371	+12%	7%	Bearish (Net Short) – Improving
Japanese Yen	+0.16%	-52,893	-10,808	+61,074	+12,305	-8,181	380,811	-3%	44%	Bearish (Net Short) – Weakening
Canadian Dollar	+0.74%	-158,166	+15,196	+161,379	-18,307	-3,213	359,585	-1%	88%	Bearish (Net Short) – Improving
Australian Dollar	+1.22%	-44,159	-4,936	+21,466	+6,605	+22,693	288,526	+8%	98%	Bearish (Net Short) – Weakening
New Zealand Dollar	+1.44%	-32,620	+6,966	+34,322	-7,309	-1,702	89,153	-8%	23%	Bearish (Net Short) – Improving
Mexican Peso	+0.67%	+79,452	-4,221	-84,585	+5,154	+5,133	284,591	+10%	18%	Bullish (Net Long) – Weakening
Crude Oil (WTI)	+6.32%	+122,090	+22,894	-153,087	-23,450	+30,997	1,888,960	0%	64%	Bullish (Net Long) – Improving
Gasoline	+4.19%	+57,844	+3,544	-70,489	-3,847	+12,645	335,534	+3%	78%	Bullish (Net Long) – Improving
Heating Oil	+1.50%	+13,879	+690	-35,053	+2,349	+21,174	271,139	+2%	35%	Bullish (Net Long) – Improving
Natural Gas	+3.06%	-203,503	-6,368	+188,326	+7,649	+15,177	1,727,378	+2%	96%	Bearish (Net Short) – Weakening
Gold	+5.18%	+222,189	+4,249	-258,418	-5,778	+36,229	406,260	+1%	0%	Bullish (Net Long) – Improving
Silver	+6.46%	+23,625	-21	-44,792	-818	+21,167	120,117	+4%	0%	Bullish (Net Long) – Weakening
Platinum	+7.66%	+13,039	-501	-17,557	+857	+4,518	60,129	+6%	85%	Bullish (Net Long) – Weakening
Palladium	+2.81%	-4,398	-482	+3,598	+223	+800	18,366	+1%	83%	Bearish (Net Short) – Weakening
Copper	-0.40%	+79,748	-640	-90,140	+1,106	+10,392	281,563	-5%	2%	Bullish (Net Long) – Weakening

Author

Mohamad Gharib

Independent Analyst

Mohamad Gharib is a Financial Markets Analyst and Quantitative Researcher with more than 18 years of experience in financial markets, including 15 years as an FX Quant Trader.

GBP/USD off highs, back to 1.3620

GBP/USD remains slightly on the defensive at the end of the week, receding to the low 1.3600s after hitting fresh tops past 1.3670 earlier in the day. Cable’s correction comes after two daily gains in a row and amid a tepid advance in the Greenback, while poor UK data also accompany the downside.

EUR/USD treads water below 1.1700

EUR/USD now trades with modest losses around 1.1670 following another unsuccessful atempt to advance past 1.1700 the figure in a convincing fashion. The pair’s decline follows a maginal rebound in the US Dollar as market participants continue to assess recent US data as well as developments from the US bond market.

Gold trims gains, recedes to the sub-$4,600 area

Gold rapidly leaves behind Thursday’s inconclusive price action and advances markedly on Friday, briefly surpassing the $4,600 mark per troy ounce to hit three-month peaks. Meanwhile, the precious metal’s solid performance comes despite marginal gains in the buck coupled with another day of rising US Treasury yields across the curve.

Week ahead: Fed’s Jackson Hole and Nvidia earnings to dictate markets

The new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, has made few public appearances since taking the central bank helm in May, yet he’s found it difficult to steer off controversy. Question marks about his relations with the President, Donald Trump, continue to swirl, while markets are still trying to make sense of his approach to monetary policy.

CFTC Report: Oil positioning rebounds; VIX and Yen exposure turn more bearish

The week in one sentence: Speculative positioning turned more constructive in the week to August 18. WTI recorded the largest increase, followed by a sharp narrowing in CAD net shorts. VIX and JPY positioning moved the other way, while Gold remained the clearest crowded long despite a softer spot price.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.