Copper eyes breakout above $5.26 after bouncing off key order block

Copper holds its ground as precious metals falter

Copper continues to defy the weakness seen in gold, silver, and platinum, standing as one of the few metals maintaining strong upward momentum.

While precious metals are weighed down by waning safe-haven demand and rising real yields, copper’s rally is being fueled by real-world demand and structural supply constraints — giving it a completely different narrative.

From a macro lens, copper’s surge represents the intersection of industrial growth, renewable energy expansion, and limited supply — a perfect cocktail that continues to attract institutional inflows.

1. Structural demand: The energy transition metal

Copper remains the backbone of the global clean-energy shift.

With governments ramping up spending on electric vehicles, power grids, and renewable energy infrastructure, copper’s use-case has expanded far beyond traditional manufacturing.

EVs, data centers, and solar grids all require large quantities of copper, making it one of the most strategically critical commodities of the decade.

Even if interest rates remain restrictive, this infrastructural demand offers copper a built-in tailwind — unlike gold, which relies on monetary policy for momentum.

2. Supply constraints support the rally

On the supply side, major mines in Chile and Indonesia continue to face production challenges, with multiple companies cutting their 2025 guidance.

According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the market is expected to shift from a small surplus this year to a refined copper deficit by 2026 — tightening the outlook even further.

The result?

Even modest demand growth can have an outsized effect on price as refiners and manufacturers scramble to secure supply lines.

That’s exactly what we’re seeing on the chart — aggressive rebounds whenever price taps key institutional demand zones.

3. Trade and sentiment tailwinds

Copper is also benefiting from the risk-on rotation in broader markets.

With the Nasdaq at all-time highs and renewed optimism over U.S.–China trade cooperation, capital is flowing away from defensive assets and into industrial commodities.

For traders, copper has essentially become the proxy for global growth optimism — a role gold once held in crisis cycles.

Technical outlook: Institutional order block rejection and breakout setup

On the technical front, copper’s structure continues to display smart-money accumulation behavior, respecting both fair value gaps (FVGs) and order blocks as demand zones.

The recent reaction confirms that institutions remain active buyers within these zones.

Order block support: The foundation of the rally

• The $4.91–$4.82 order block, created during the early-October bullish displacement, acted as a key support base for copper.
• Price wicked precisely into this zone before rejecting strongly higher, confirming that institutional demand defended the level.
• This created a structural higher low, preserving bullish order flow and signaling continuation potential.

This strong rebound off the order block reestablishes bullish dominance and validates the $4.82–$4.91 zone as a major liquidity footprint — an area where smart money re-entered the market.

Approaching resistance: Breakout opportunity ahead

Copper is now trading around $5.15–$5.20, approaching the key resistance level at $5.26/lb, marked by previous highs and a liquidity cluster.

The structure shows compression beneath resistance, which often precedes expansion or breakout behavior.

• A clean daily close above $5.26 would confirm a breakout continuation, targeting the $5.40–$5.55 range.
• Momentum remains constructive, with each retracement finding buyers at fair value gaps and order block levels.

If the breakout is validated, the next leg could target the monthly inefficiency zone near $5.55, aligning with long-term bullish projections.

Bullish scenario

• Break and close above $5.26 unlocks targets toward $5.40–$5.55.
• Continuation fueled by risk-on sentiment, supply tightening, and industrial buying.
• Order block ($4.91–$4.82) remains the primary re-entry area for institutions.

Bearish scenario

• Rejection at $5.26 could trigger a pullback toward the mid-support level at $5.00, or deeper into the order block at $4.82.
• A confirmed daily close below $4.82 would signal a shift in structure, turning the bias neutral and opening the door to $4.60–$4.50.

Key technical levels:

• Resistance: $5.2610.
• Mid-Level / Order Block: $4.9130.
• Support: $4.8220.

Why Copper’s divergence matters

The divergence between copper and other metals is not random — it reflects a shift in global capital flows.

Investors are moving away from passive, defensive exposure and toward assets tied to real economic expansion.

• Gold is consolidating amid fading rate-cut expectations.
• Silver and platinum face industrial softness in the short term.
• Copper, however, sits at the center of long-duration growth themes like decarbonization, semiconductors, and infrastructure.

In essence, copper’s rally is not speculative — it’s structural.

Final thoughts

Copper’s price action remains one of the cleanest representations of institutional order flow among commodities.

Each retracement into imbalance zones or order blocks has produced a new bullish expansion — signaling that smart money continues to accumulate rather than distribute.

With price now compressing just below $5.26, traders should watch for either a breakout candle confirming continuation or a wick rejection signaling short-term distribution.

As long as $4.91 holds, copper’s medium-term outlook stays bullish, supported by fundamentals and structure alike.

In a market where most metals are struggling, copper remains the clear outperformer — the metal of growth, not fear.