Economic Activity

  • The ECRI Weekly Leading index dropped 1.1 this week and is down -1.26% year over year.

  • ISM Manufacturing dropped to 52.1 from 52.8 previously.

  • ISM Non-manufacturing picked up to 56.9 from 55.5.

  • Non-farm payrolls grew by only 75k from 224k in the previous month.

 

Equity Markets

  • Broad markets had a good week. The Dow was the leader, gaining 4.85% (DIA).

  • The VIX closed the week down -12.83% at 16.30.

  • We mentioned a sellable bounce could materialize. We are in that bounce. Markets are no longer oversold.

 

Factors

  • High Beta and momentum were the top performing factors last week, up 5.13% and 5.11% respectively. Dividend growth was also up 4.98%, showing strong relative strength.

 

Sectors

  • Materials gained over 9% last week. Semiconductors had a good week as well, finishing up 5.98%.

 

Intermarket

  • Lumber gained 0.68% against Gold last week.

  • Copper declined -3.06% against Gold last week.

  • High Yield bonds (JNK) gained 1.72% against Treasuries (TLT)

  • Stocks gained against bonds and gold last week (VT:IEF = 3.23%) (VT:GLD = 1.07%).

 

Fixed Income, Commodities, Currencies

  • The 10 year yield was down 5 basis points to 2.09%

  • Precious metals were up 2.73% for the week.

  • Industrial metals were down -1.32%.

  • Emerging market bonds rallied 1.88% (EMB).

  • The Euro gained 1.50% against the dollar and 1.21% against the Yen.

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