China Trade Data is Nail in the Coffin of Global Economy

Chinese exports and imports even though China's trade balance with the US rose.

Eamonn Sheridan at Forex Live has some interesting comments on China's December Trade Balance.

The export figures are a focus and they are poor indeed. But save some space in the barf bag for the import results, they are terrible - huge miss on these.

Demand in China has been showing evidence of slowing. This is a nail in the coffin.

December 2018 Data - Yuan Terms

  • China trade balance comes in at CNY 395bn, expected CNY 345bn, prior was CNY 306bn
  • Exports 0.2% y/y, expected 6.6%, prior was 10.2%... BIG MISS
  • Imports -3.1% y/y, expected 12.0%, prior was 7.8% … even bigger miss

December 2018 Data - US Dollar Terms

  • China trade balance USD 57.06bn, expected $51.6bn, prior was $44.7bn
  • Exports -4.4% y/y, expected 2.0%, prior 5.4%
  • Imports -7.6% y/y, expected 4.5%, prior was 3.0%

Tariff Man

Chinese Investment in the US Slumps to 7-Yr Low

The Financial Times reports Chinese Investment in the US Slumps to 7-Yr Low

Including $13bn in US asset divestitures by Chinese investors, China’s net US investment actually shrank by $8bn in 2018.

Negative Revisions

Worst China Data in 15 Years

Expect "Greatest Deal Ever"

Both the US and China desperately need a deal.

So, as I stated 5 days ago, Expect a Deal With China, Just Don't Expect Much From It.

And should there be a deal, expect announcements of the "greatest deal ever" no matter how trivial the deal really is.

Europe Likely in Recession Now: Germany, France, Italy Production Collapsed

In case you missed it, Europe Likely in Recession Now: Germany, France, Italy Production Collapsed

German, French, and Italian industrial production collapsed in November. Italy GDP is negative for 3rd Quarter.

A global recession is on deck.

This material is based upon information that Sitka Pacific Capital Management considers reliable and endeavors to keep current, Sitka Pacific Capital Management does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.