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BBVA Bancomer Team
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The GBP/USD pair builds on Friday's modest bounce from a three-week low and gains strong follow-through positive traction at the start of a new week. This marks the second straight day of a positive move and lifts spot prices above mid-1.3300s during the Asian session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar.
The EUR/USD pair builds on a modest bullish gap opening and climbs back above the 1.1400 mark during the Asian session on Monday. The intraday move up is sponsored by a broadly weaker US Dollar, weighed down by renewed optimism over a diplomatic resolution to end a five-month-old US-Iran war.
Gold holds the bullish gap-up opening on Monday, around $4,100, as hopes of US-Iran peace talks weigh heavily on crude oil prices, easing inflation fears and tempering Fed rate-hike bets. Moreover, the optimism drags the safe-haven US Dollar away from a one-month top, touched on Friday, and supports the non-yielding bullion.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple begin the week on a firm footing after surging over 1%, 4% and 1%, respectively, in the previous week. BTC holds above key technical resistance after recording its fourth consecutive weekly gain.
The Australian Dollar rode a rollercoaster in the first half of the year, hitting a four-year high and then correcting. The currency enters the second half with an outlook full of uncertainty due to renewed hostilities in the Middle East, which clouds the inflation outlook and interest rates.
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.
