CHF/JPY posts perfect rally from Elliott Wave blue box area

In this technical blog, we analyze the historical performance of the CHFJPY 1-hour Elliott Wave charts, as presented to members of ElliottWave-Forecast. The analysis highlights an impulsive rally that began from the October 15 low and concluded at the October 27 high, which surpassed the prior peak from October 8—signaling a potential bullish extension. Based on this development, we recommended that members avoid short positions on the yen cross and instead consider buying the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swing sequences within the designated blue box areas. The following sections will detail the wave structure and provide our updated forecast.

CHF/JPY one-hour Elliott Wave analysis [October 30 Asia update]

Impulsive rally from October 15 to October 27

The chart highlights a strong impulsive rally that began at the October 15 low and peaked on October 27. This upward move unfolded in a classic five-wave impulse, confirming bullish momentum. Notably, the October 27 high exceeded the previous October 8 peak, suggesting an extension to the upside.

Zigzag correction in progress

Following the rally, CHFJPY entered a corrective phase, forming a Zigzag Elliott Wave structure — a 5-3-5 pattern where waves (a) and (c) both consist of five sub-waves. In this case:

• Wave (a) developed as a standard impulse.
• Wave (c) shows overlapping characteristics, indicating it is likely unfolding as a diagonal.

Price has already reached the 100% Fibonacci extension of wave (a) measured from wave (b). However, the decline from the wave (b) high currently shows only three waves. This implies that a marginal new low may be needed to complete five swings within wave (c), thereby finalizing the three-wave pullback from the October 27 peak.

Blue box support zone and forecast

We expect buyers to emerge within the blue box support area between 190.70 and 189.89. As long as price holds above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level at 189.89, the bullish outlook remains intact. From this zone, we anticipate either:

• A continuation of the rally toward a new high above the October 27 peak, or
• A minimum three-wave reaction higher.

CHF/JPY one-hour Elliott Wave analysis [October 30 midday New York update]

Following our previous analysis, the chart confirms that buyers did indeed step in at the blue box support zone between 190.70 and 189.89, triggering a strong rally that swiftly broke above the October 27 peak. The nature of this advance appears impulsive, reinforcing the bullish outlook.

Pullback structure and support expectations

Given the impulsive character of the rally, we expect any pullbacks to remain corrective — ideally unfolding in 3, 7, or 11 swings — and supported for further upside extension. Traders who entered long positions from the initial blue box zone should now be in a risk-free position.

Next area of interest: 191.85 – 191.46

Looking ahead, the 191.85 – 191.46 zone marks the next potential support area, where we anticipate another blue box to form. This region is likely to attract fresh buying interest and could serve as the launchpad for the next leg higher. However, it’s important to note that a break below the October 30 low at 190.47 would invalidate this bullish scenario and suggest a deeper correction may be underway.