CEE: Chinese exports start redirecting

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

Unemployment rate in Croatia increased to 4.0% in July, while real wage sustained solid pace of growth at 6.5% in June.
Today, at 10 AM CET, Poland will publish July’s industrial output growth, producer prices, employment and nominal wage growth.

At 10.30 AM Slovenia will release producer prices.

Economic developments

There is little doubt, that President Donald Trump's tariff decisions since he took office in January will have an effect on global economy and on our region. In the latest Growth Navigator we flag that setting the tariff rate at 15% between the US and the EU will affect negatively the 2026 economic development, mostly in the CEE region. Apart from lower growth, we also see some shift in China’s trading partners. Between January and June 2025, the share of exports from China to US declined to 12.1% from an average of 14.7% in 2024. At this point shares of exports form China to the EU27 and to the region remain mostly unaffected, however. Share of exports from China to CEE8 increased marginally in 2025 to 2.8% (Jan-June average) from 2.6% in 2024. The share of exports to other EU countries remained practically stable. China remains the main exporter of the world in general, and its exports have been growing by more than 5% y/y in the first half of the year.

Market movements

In Czechia, the opposition party ANO, that currently leads in polls and is expected to win parliamentary election in autumn 2025, has become more and more vocal about ending the fiscal austerity run by current government. Over the last couple of years, the budget deficit was halved thanks to a mix of solutions affecting both expenditure and revenue side. There is no other major news from the region.

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Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

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