CEE ages at a higher rate than the EU

On the radar

• In Poland, industrial output grew by 1.2% y/y in April. Employment declined by -0.8% y/y wile nominal wage growth reached 9.3% y/y. Producer prices dropped by -1.4% y/y in April.

• In Slovenia, producer prices grew 1.0% y/y in April.

• In Croatia, unemployment rate dropped to 4.6% in April, while real wage growth eased to 6.4% y/y in March.

• Today, Slovenia will publish real wage growth.

Economic developments

Earlier this week, Eurostat published demographic data for the previous year, reaffirming the trend of an ageing population across the EU. The youngest populations are found in Ireland, Luxembourg, and Malta, where the median age remains below 40. Within CEE, Slovakia has the youngest demographic profile, reporting a median age of 42.6. However, Slovakia has also experienced the steepest increase in median age over the past decade (+4 years), placing it alongside Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Cyprus. The oldest populations in CEE are concentrated in the Balkans, particularly in Croatia (45.4), Slovenia (45.2), and Serbia (45.2). These countries have also seen increases in median age over the last ten years, ranging from 2 to 2.5 years. Interestingly, all CEE countries have their median age increase higher than the EU average. These demographic developments are expected to put increasing pressure not only on social welfare systems but also on the broader economic performance in the years ahead.

Market developments

The Polish zloty and Romanian leu have been stronger against the euro this week. The 10Y yields have been lower this week across the region. On the core markets the trend was quite opposite this week. Such development in the US is associated with the President Donald Trump’s tax-cut plan according to Bloomberg. There are no other local news.

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